L’École des cotes

Independiente v Newells Old Boys

2026-07-31 00:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Résultat du match

24 opérateurs (11 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Independiente (Local)

Prévision 54.08%1.85cote équitable
EV -4.28%
Avantage -2.42%
Kelly -5.56%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.77

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.96%54.00%54.12%54.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.571.701.711.7763.69%58.82%58.48%56.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Newells Old Boys (Visiteur)

Prévision 18.10%5.53cote équitable
EV -2.28%
Avantage -0.422%
Kelly -0.517%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.55%18.16%18.13%20.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.335.005.005.4023.09%20.00%20.00%18.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.82%3.59cote équitable
EV -4.01%
Avantage -1.16%
Kelly -1.64%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.14%27.84%27.75%28.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.303.303.4532.26%30.27%30.30%28.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (24 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.83%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -4.99%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -5.40%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 16:59
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -5.36%E -3.06%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -2.28%E -0.422%K -0.517%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.29%EV -6.79%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 00:40
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -5.36%E -3.06%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -2.28%E -0.422%K -0.517%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.29%EV -6.79%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 00:40
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.53%EV -5.90%E -3.39%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.73%EV -3.18%E -0.595%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.74%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 01:58
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 53.55%EV -5.90%E -3.39%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -6.79%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 00:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.40%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.93%EV -4.99%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -5.40%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 00:20
SportsBet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.13%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -4.01%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 16:24
LowVig.ag1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 15:50
BetOnline.ag1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 15:50
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 52.95%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -14.04%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 08:09
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.51%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -4.99%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -6.51%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 01:39
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -5.90%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.79%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 00:20
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.23%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -4.99%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 00:25
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.40%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 16:23
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-22 13:45
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 00:25
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 00:24
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 53.39%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -14.04%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 00:15
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 54.05%EV -8.61%E -5.09%K -12.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 10:55
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 51.96%EV -9.69%E -5.80%K -14.46%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.04%EV -21.64%E -5.00%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.99%EV -13.75%E -4.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-17 16:24
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.95%EV -11.31%E -6.90%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -14.94%E -3.18%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -9.57%E -2.95%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-25 13:35
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 54.36%EV -12.93%E -8.03%K -21.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.86%EV -11.33%E -2.31%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -12.36%E -3.92%K -5.75%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-23 00:19
Winamax (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 53.51%EV -14.55%E -9.21%K -25.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.22%EV -20.37%E -4.63%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.27%EV -13.75%E -4.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%18.3%2026-07-25 13:30
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.88%EV -15.10%E -9.61%K -26.48%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 17.77%EV -12.23%E -2.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.35%EV -12.36%E -3.92%K -5.75%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-25 00:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 53.21%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.23%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.56%16.7%2026-07-21 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:30