A Escola das Odds

Independiente v Newells Old Boys

2026-07-31 00:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Frente a frente

24 casas de apostas (11 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Independiente (Local)

Previsão 54.08%1.85odd justa
EV -4.28%
Vantagem -2.42%
Kelly -5.56%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.77

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
51.96%54.00%54.12%54.88%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.571.701.711.7763.69%58.82%58.48%56.50%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Newells Old Boys (Visitante)

Previsão 18.10%5.53odd justa
EV -2.28%
Vantagem -0.422%
Kelly -0.517%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.55%18.16%18.13%20.04%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
4.335.005.005.4023.09%20.00%20.00%18.52%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 27.82%3.59odd justa
EV -4.01%
Vantagem -1.16%
Kelly -1.64%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.14%27.84%27.75%28.29%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.103.303.303.4532.26%30.27%30.30%28.99%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (24 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.83%EV -4.28%E -2.42%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -4.99%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -5.40%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 16:59
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -5.36%E -3.06%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -2.28%E -0.422%K -0.517%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.29%EV -6.79%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 00:40
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -5.36%E -3.06%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -2.28%E -0.422%K -0.517%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.29%EV -6.79%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 00:40
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.53%EV -5.90%E -3.39%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.73%EV -3.18%E -0.595%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.74%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 04:14
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 53.55%EV -5.90%E -3.39%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -6.79%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 00:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.40%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.93%EV -4.99%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -5.40%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 00:20
SportsBet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.13%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -4.01%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 16:24
LowVig.ag1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 15:50
BetOnline.ag1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 15:50
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 52.95%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -14.04%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 08:09
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.51%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -4.99%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -6.51%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 04:09
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -5.90%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.79%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 00:20
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.23%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -4.99%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 00:25
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.40%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 16:23
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-22 13:45
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 00:25
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 00:24
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 53.39%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -14.04%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 00:15
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 54.05%EV -8.61%E -5.09%K -12.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -9.52%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 10:55
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 51.96%EV -9.69%E -5.80%K -14.46%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.04%EV -21.64%E -5.00%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.99%EV -13.75%E -4.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-17 16:24
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.95%EV -11.31%E -6.90%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -14.94%E -3.18%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -9.57%E -2.95%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-25 13:35
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 54.36%EV -12.93%E -8.03%K -21.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.86%EV -11.33%E -2.31%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -12.36%E -3.92%K -5.75%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-23 00:19
Winamax (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 53.51%EV -14.55%E -9.21%K -25.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.22%EV -20.37%E -4.63%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.27%EV -13.75%E -4.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%18.3%2026-07-25 13:30
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.88%EV -15.10%E -9.61%K -26.48%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 17.77%EV -12.23%E -2.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.35%EV -12.36%E -3.92%K -5.75%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-25 00:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 53.21%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.23%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.56%16.7%2026-07-21 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:30