Idioma:Español
Independiente v Newells Old Boys
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Independiente (Local)
Predicción 60.59%1.65momio equitativo
EV -2.45%
Ventaja -1.52%
Kelly -4.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.66%60.55%60.58%62.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.431.541.551.6169.93%64.96%64.52%62.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Newells Old Boys (Visitante)
Predicción 15.10%6.62momio equitativo
EV +2.71%
Ventaja +0.398%
Kelly +0.467%
Crecimiento +0.013%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.04%15.04%15.08%16.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.606.216.056.8017.86%16.10%16.53%14.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 24.30%4.11momio equitativo
EV -0.356%
Ventaja -0.087%
Kelly -0.115%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.41%24.41%24.34%27.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.353.763.804.1029.85%26.62%26.32%24.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Independiente (Local): 60.59%; Newells Old Boys (Visitante): 15.10%; Empate: 24.30%. Para Newells Old Boys (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.62. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.71%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.12%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.16%EV +2.71%E +0.398%K +0.467%G +0.013% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.72%EV -1.33%E -0.327%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.87%EV -2.45%E -1.52%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.04%EV +1.95%E +0.289%K +0.339%G +0.007% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.94%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.87%EV -2.45%E -1.52%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.04%EV +1.95%E +0.289%K +0.339%G +0.007% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.94%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.02%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.73I 14.86%NM 14.38%EV +1.65%E +0.245%K +0.288%G +0.005% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.60%EV -0.356%E -0.087%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-30 23:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.02%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.73I 14.86%NM 14.38%EV +1.65%E +0.245%K +0.288%G +0.005% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.60%EV -0.356%E -0.087%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-31 00:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.71%EV -3.05%E -1.91%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -1.83%E -0.281%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -14.94%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.59%EV -7.90%E -5.20%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -1.83%E -0.281%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-31 00:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.22%EV -10.32%E -6.97%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -1.83%E -0.281%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-31 00:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.84%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.99%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.77%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.74%EV -4.26%E -2.70%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -10.08%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.74%EV -4.26%E -2.70%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -10.08%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.66%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -18.58%E -5.55%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.66%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -18.58%E -5.55%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.97%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -18.58%E -5.55%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.60%EV -4.26%E -2.70%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 6.34I 15.77%NM 15.10%EV -4.24%E -0.669%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.30%EV -4.24%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.08%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -5.60%E -0.896%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -6.69%E -4.34%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -5.60%E -0.896%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.56%EV -12.14%E -8.37%K -26.98%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.63%EV -7.87%E -1.29%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -8.86%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.43%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -4.00%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-30 23:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -4.87%E -3.10%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-30 23:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -4.87%E -3.10%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-30 23:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.43%E -1.67%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -4.87%E -3.10%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.86%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-30 23:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-30 23:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.82%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -8.86%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.62%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -10.08%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.86%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.09%EV -7.90%E -5.20%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -10.08%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.11%E -6.07%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-30 23:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -7.90%E -5.20%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -12.51%E -3.47%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -13.35%E -9.34%K -31.05%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -11.29%E -3.09%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-31 00:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.37%EV -10.32%E -6.97%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.14%EV -10.89%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -11.29%E -3.09%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-30 23:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.86%EV -9.11%E -6.07%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -12.40%E -2.14%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.61%EV -9.11%E -6.07%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -13.15%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.51%E -3.47%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-31 00:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.31%EV -9.72%E -6.52%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.05%EV -15.42%E -2.75%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.05% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57% | 1.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.05% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57% | 1.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.05% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57% | 1.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.82% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.70% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.4% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.74% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.72% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.54% | 1.9% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |