Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Nationals v Chicago Cubs

2026-08-11 22:46 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Prediction 40.11%2.49fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.541%
Kelly -0.911%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%40.18%40.15%40.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.372.382.4645.45%42.22%42.02%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 59.89%1.67fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -3.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.05%59.82%59.85%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.581.6365.79%63.12%63.09%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Washington Nationals (Local): 40.11%; Chicago Cubs (Visit): 59.89%. For Washington Nationals (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.46, with an expected value of -1.33%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%EV -1.33%E -0.541%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%EV -2.38%E -1.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-10 22:25
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.58%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-10 22:30
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-10 22:15
MyBookie.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-10 22:20
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-10 23:09
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-10 22:55
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-10 22:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-10 22:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-10 22:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-10 22:14
Bet Right🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-10 22:15
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-10 22:14
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-10 22:13
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-10 22:14
Coolbet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -4.94%E -2.08%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 22:14
SportsBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -4.94%E -2.08%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.31%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-10 22:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.74%E -2.44%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -2.38%E -1.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-10 22:50
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.74%E -2.44%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.58%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-10 23:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.74%E -2.44%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-10 22:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.74%E -2.44%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-10 22:20
ReBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.74%E -2.44%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-10 22:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -6.14%E -2.63%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-10 22:18
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.75%E -4.33%K -7.80%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -7.77%E -5.04%K -14.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-10 22:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.86%EV -11.76%E -5.34%K -9.80%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.14%EV -8.97%E -5.90%K -17.24%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-10 22:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-08-11 01:00
Polymarket2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-08-11 01:05
Novig2.47I 40.49%NM 39.90%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.10%1.5%2026-08-11 00:59
ProphetX2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%4.1%2026-08-11 01:05
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 40.58%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%10.0%2026-08-10 23:25
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 40.27%1.51I 66.23%NM 59.73%10.9%2026-08-11 01:05

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