Language:English
Maria Timofeeva v Elise Mertens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Maria Timofeeva (Local)
Prediction 26.95%3.71fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +0.569%
Kelly +0.773%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 3.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.25%26.90%27.08%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.483.503.7930.77%28.77%28.57%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Elise Mertens (Visit)
Prediction 73.05%1.37fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -8.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.12%73.10%72.92%74.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.301.3380.00%76.44%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Timofeeva (Local): 26.95%; Elise Mertens (Visit): 73.05%. For Maria Timofeeva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.83%EV +2.16%E +0.569%K +0.773%G +0.017% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.17%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-09-03 14:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +1.08%E +0.287%K +0.392%G +0.004% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-03 14:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV +1.08%E +0.287%K +0.392%G +0.004% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-03 14:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.270%E -0.073%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.69%E -6.95%K -34.77%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 14:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -1.62%E -0.443%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-03 12:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -1.62%E -0.443%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-03 12:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -1.62%E -0.443%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 14:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.02%EV -1.89%E -0.519%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.98%EV -6.50%E -5.08%K -23.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 14:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%EV -2.16%E -0.594%K -0.820%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.78%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 03:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.97%E -0.824%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 13:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.97%E -0.824%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 12:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.97%E -0.824%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 03:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.79%EV -3.50%E -0.979%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.21%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 14:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.31%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 14:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -4.31%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.50%E -5.08%K -23.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 14:31 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.37%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.63%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-02 09:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 14:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 06:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 14:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 14:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 05:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 15:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 13:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 10:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 03:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 03:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 08:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 14:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 10:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 14:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.01%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 03:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.33%EV -7.55%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-02 17:22 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.33%EV -7.55%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-02 17:22 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -7.82%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 10:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-02 02:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 10:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 10:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 08:08 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 10:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 10:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 00:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 05:31 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 10:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 10:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -12.40%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-02 01:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 0.8% | 2026-09-03 14:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 0.8% | 2026-09-03 14:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.95% | 1.1% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 1.2% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 1.2% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 1.2% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.47% | 1.7% | 2026-09-03 14:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.64% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.36% | 2.7% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |