Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Timofeeva v Elise Mertens

Início: 2026-09-03 15:02 UTC

Final: Maria Timofeeva 0–2 Elise Mertens

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

65 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Timofeeva (Local)

Previsão 26.95%3.71odd justa
EV +2.16%
Vantagem +0.569%
Kelly +0.773%
Crescimento +0.017%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.79

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.25%26.90%27.08%28.88%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.483.503.7930.77%28.77%28.57%26.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Elise Mertens (Visitante)

Previsão 73.05%1.37odd justa
EV -2.85%
Vantagem -2.14%
Kelly -8.63%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.33

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
71.12%73.10%72.92%74.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.251.311.301.3380.00%76.44%76.92%75.19%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Maria Timofeeva (Local): 26.95%; Elise Mertens (Visitante): 73.05%. Para Maria Timofeeva (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.71. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.79, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.16%.

Odds das casas de apostas (65 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.83%EV +2.16%E +0.569%K +0.773%G +0.017%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.17%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-03 14:40
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +1.08%E +0.287%K +0.392%G +0.004%1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-03 14:29
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV +1.08%E +0.287%K +0.392%G +0.004%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-03 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.270%E -0.073%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.69%E -6.95%K -34.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 14:30
BetOnline.ag🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -1.62%E -0.443%K -0.611%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-03 12:44
LowVig.ag🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -1.62%E -0.443%K -0.611%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-03 12:44
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -1.62%E -0.443%K -0.611%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 14:25
DraftKings🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 26.02%EV -1.89%E -0.519%K -0.715%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.98%EV -6.50%E -5.08%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 14:25
SportsBet🎯3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%EV -2.16%E -0.594%K -0.820%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.78%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 03:05
ReBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.97%E -0.824%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 13:05
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.97%E -0.824%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 12:00
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.97%E -0.824%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 03:05
Betclic (FR)🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.79%EV -3.50%E -0.979%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.21%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 14:50
Bet Right🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.31%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 14:14
NetBet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -4.31%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.50%E -5.08%K -23.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 14:31
GTbets🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.37%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.63%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-02 09:30
1xBet🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 06:15
BetAnything🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 14:50
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 05:00
MyBookie.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 15:09
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 11:55
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 11:55
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 13:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 11:55
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 10:15
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 03:00
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 03:00
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 08:15
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 14:45
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 10:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 14:30
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 14:10
theScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.01%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 03:05
Betsson🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.33%EV -7.55%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 17:22
NordicBet🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.33%EV -7.55%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 17:22
Marathon Bet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -7.82%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 10:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 02:10
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.31%E -3.29%K -13.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 10:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 10:15
TAB🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:55
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 08:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 10:25
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 10:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.04%E -3.88%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 00:40
Caesars🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.77%E -4.47%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 05:31
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
Bally Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.85%E -2.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 01:55
Neds🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 10:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 10:25
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -12.40%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -3.58%E -2.71%K -11.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 01:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%0.8%2026-09-03 14:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%0.8%2026-09-03 14:50
Matchbook◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.95%1.1%2026-09-03 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%1.2%2026-09-03 14:55
Kalshi◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%1.2%2026-09-03 14:55
ProphetX◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%1.2%2026-09-03 14:55
Novig◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.47%1.7%2026-09-03 14:40
Smarkets◎3.80I 26.32%NM 25.64%1.31I 76.34%NM 74.36%2.7%2026-09-03 14:55