Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Iga Swiatek v Marie Bouzkova

Início: 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC

Final: Iga Swiatek 2–0 Marie Bouzkova

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Iga Swiatek (Local)

Previsão 82.83%1.21odd justa
EV -0.603%
Vantagem -0.502%
Kelly -3.01%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
79.28%82.68%82.83%84.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.121.151.141.2089.29%87.31%87.72%83.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Marie Bouzkova (Visitante)

Previsão 17.17%5.82odd justa
EV +4.56%
Vantagem +0.749%
Kelly +0.896%
Crescimento +0.041%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.09

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.73%17.32%17.17%20.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.405.475.506.0922.73%18.29%18.18%16.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Iga Swiatek (Local): 82.83%; Marie Bouzkova (Visitante): 17.17%. Para Marie Bouzkova (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.82. 9 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.09, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.56%.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.23%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%6.09I 16.42%NM 15.77%EV +4.56%E +0.749%K +0.896%G +0.041%4.1%2026-09-04 11:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.23%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%6.09I 16.42%NM 15.77%EV +4.56%E +0.749%K +0.896%G +0.041%4.1%2026-09-04 11:45
Pinnacle🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 84.05%EV -4.74%E -4.13%K -31.63%G +0.000%6.06I 16.50%NM 15.95%EV +4.04%E +0.667%K +0.799%G +0.032%3.5%2026-09-04 08:00
Coolbet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.80%EV -3.92%E -3.38%K -24.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%EV +3.01%E +0.502%K +0.603%G +0.018%2.9%2026-09-04 07:45
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +3.01%E +0.502%K +0.603%G +0.018%4.4%2026-09-04 14:00
FanDuel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +3.01%E +0.502%K +0.603%G +0.018%4.4%2026-09-04 14:05
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.40%E -5.66%K -49.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +3.01%E +0.502%K +0.603%G +0.018%5.2%2026-09-04 14:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.23%E -6.45%K -60.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +3.01%E +0.502%K +0.603%G +0.018%6.0%2026-09-04 13:49
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.23%E -6.45%K -60.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +3.01%E +0.502%K +0.603%G +0.018%6.0%2026-09-04 14:05
SportsBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -7.23%E -6.45%K -60.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -1.28%E -0.222%K -0.269%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:05
BetUS🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.19%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 16.81%EV -3.17%E -0.561%K -0.682%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:10
DraftKings🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.11%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.61I 17.83%NM 16.89%EV -3.68%E -0.656%K -0.799%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 07:10
Casumo🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
BetRivers🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
TABtouch🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:19
Grosvenor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
Bally Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:20
betPARX🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.85%E -0.688%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:19
GTbets🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.49%EV -3.09%E -2.64%K -18.16%G +0.000%5.51I 18.15%NM 17.51%EV -5.40%E -0.980%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-04 07:40
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.74%E -4.13%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 21:55
Bet Right🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.74%E -4.13%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 07:15
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.74%E -4.13%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 07:15
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 07:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 13:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 08:34
William Hill🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 07:10
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 07:10
PlayUp🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 11:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 09:20
BetMGM🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 07:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 07:10
TAB🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.40%E -5.66%K -49.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 11:45
Coral🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.40%E -5.66%K -49.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.40%E -5.66%K -49.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 21:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.40%E -5.66%K -49.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:05
Caesars🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.23%E -6.45%K -60.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 05:03
Neds🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.74%E -4.13%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -7.29%E -1.35%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.74%E -4.13%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -7.29%E -1.35%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:50
theScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.40%E -5.66%K -49.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -7.29%E -1.35%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 07:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -7.23%E -6.45%K -60.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -7.29%E -1.35%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 09:19
Fliff🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.43%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.57%EV -8.15%E -1.52%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -2.26%E -1.91%K -12.55%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -9.00%E -1.70%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-04 07:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -2.26%E -1.91%K -12.55%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -12.44%E -2.44%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 07:45
Fanatics🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.09%E -2.64%K -18.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.15%E -2.83%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 19:25
betano_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.09%E -2.64%K -18.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.15%E -2.83%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 07:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -3.92%E -3.38%K -24.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -14.15%E -2.83%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 10:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -3.92%E -3.38%K -24.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -14.15%E -2.83%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 21:00
Betsson🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.95%EV -3.92%E -3.38%K -24.48%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.05%EV -15.36%E -3.11%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 19:55
NordicBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.95%EV -3.92%E -3.38%K -24.48%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.05%EV -15.36%E -3.11%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 19:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -3.09%E -2.64%K -18.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -15.87%E -3.24%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 11:41
MyBookie.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -3.09%E -2.64%K -18.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -15.87%E -3.24%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 19:58
1xBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.07%EV -0.603%E -0.502%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.93%EV -17.25%E -3.58%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 14:05
LeoVegas🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -17.59%E -3.66%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 11:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -2.26%E -1.91%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -18.45%E -3.88%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 14:00
ReBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.28%EV -4.74%E -4.13%K -31.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -24.46%E -5.56%K -7.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-03 19:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88%0.7%2026-09-03 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-09-04 08:06
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-09-04 08:06
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-09-04 08:05
Matchbook◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-09-04 09:05
ProphetX◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.86%6.50I 15.38%NM 15.14%1.6%2026-09-04 14:10
Novig◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.76%6.45I 15.50%NM 15.24%1.7%2026-09-04 09:20
Smarkets◎1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32%2.1%2026-09-04 14:26