Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Taylor Townsend
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 81.30%1.23fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -12.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.95%81.08%81.22%83.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.171.2087.72%85.44%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Taylor Townsend (Visit)
Prediction 18.70%5.35fair odd
EV +8.49%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.150%
assuming max odds 5.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.43%18.92%18.78%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.065.005.8022.22%19.77%20.00%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 81.30%; Taylor Townsend (Visit): 18.70%. For Taylor Townsend (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.35. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.31%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +8.49%E +1.46%K +1.77%G +0.150% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.31%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +8.49%E +1.46%K +1.77%G +0.150% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.31%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +8.49%E +1.46%K +1.77%G +0.150% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.31%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +7.55%E +1.31%K +1.59%G +0.120% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 15:06 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%EV +2.87%E +0.523%K +0.639%G +0.018% | 2.9% | 2026-09-06 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -0.866%E -0.163%K -0.201%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.26%E -2.74%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.26%E -2.74%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.40%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 10:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -2.74%E -0.526%K -0.652%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -2.74%E -0.526%K -0.652%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.40%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -2.74%E -0.526%K -0.652%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 15:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.40%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -2.74%E -0.526%K -0.652%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 13:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.22%EV -2.45%E -2.04%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.78%EV -2.92%E -0.563%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.07%EV -2.45%E -2.04%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.93%EV -3.86%E -0.751%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -4.61%E -0.903%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -4.61%E -0.903%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 15:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.40%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -4.61%E -0.903%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -5.54%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.45%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.40%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.55%EV -5.54%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 04:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 13:56 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-05 22:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.95%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.61%G +0.000% | 4.93I 20.28%NM 19.05%EV -7.79%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.95%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.61%G +0.000% | 4.93I 20.28%NM 19.05%EV -7.79%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.61%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -8.35%E -1.70%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -9.28%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 04:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 13:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.61%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -11.15%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -11.15%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 13:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -11.15%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -2.45%E -2.04%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV -13.02%E -2.80%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-06 14:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -3.26%E -2.74%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -13.02%E -2.80%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.26%E -2.74%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -13.96%E -3.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.45%E -2.04%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.45%E -2.04%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.45%E -2.04%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 12:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.45%E -2.04%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.45%E -2.04%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90% | 0.3% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.63% | 5.71I 17.51%NM 17.37% | 0.8% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.21% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.79% | 2.2% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |