Language:English
Lucrezia Stefanini v Jelena Ostapenko
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lucrezia Stefanini (Local)
Prediction 6.59%15.18fair odd
EV +77.85%
Edge +2.88%
Kelly +2.99%
Growth +2.33%
assuming max odds 27.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.61%7.16%6.37%14.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.5013.1413.0027.0015.38%7.61%7.69%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jelena Ostapenko (Visit)
Prediction 93.41%1.07fair odd
EV +3.69%
Edge +3.32%
Kelly +33.53%
Growth +1.24%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.75%92.84%93.63%96.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.031.021.11100.00%96.95%98.04%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lucrezia Stefanini (Local): 6.59%; Jelena Ostapenko (Visit): 93.41%. For Lucrezia Stefanini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.18. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +77.85%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.61%EV +77.85%E +2.88%K +2.99%G +2.33% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-06 09:18 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.39%EV +44.92%E +2.04%K +2.14%G +0.961% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.61%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.39%EV +44.92%E +2.04%K +2.14%G +0.961% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.61%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +38.33%E +1.83%K +1.92%G +0.735% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +38.33%E +1.83%K +1.92%G +0.735% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +38.33%E +1.83%K +1.92%G +0.735% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -6.59%E -6.59%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV +21.86%E +1.18%K +1.25%G +0.273% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-06 09:17 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +18.57%E +1.03%K +1.09%G +0.203% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +18.57%E +1.03%K +1.09%G +0.203% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-06 09:17 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -6.59%E -6.59%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +5.39%E +0.337%K +0.360%G +0.019% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 09:18 |
| Unibet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 09:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -7.78%E -0.556%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 09:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -7.78%E -0.556%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.96%EV -11.07%E -0.820%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.04%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 09:18 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 09:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 09:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 09:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 09:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.95%E -1.75%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 09:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.95%E -1.75%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 09:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -27.54%E -2.50%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 09:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -27.54%E -2.50%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-06 09:13 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -30.83%E -2.94%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.23%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-06 09:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 10.30I 9.71%NM 8.93%EV -32.15%E -3.12%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.07%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-06 09:12 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -34.13%E -3.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-06 09:18 |
| BetUS🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -40.72%E -4.52%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-06 09:03 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.98I 11.14%NM 10.65%EV -40.85%E -4.55%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.35%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-06 08:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.07%EV -43.35%E -5.04%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.93%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 8.54I 11.71%NM 11.23%EV -43.75%E -5.12%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.77%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098% | 4.3% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.54I 11.71%NM 11.23%EV -43.75%E -5.12%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.77%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098% | 4.3% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -44.01%E -5.18%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 08:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -44.01%E -5.18%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 89.38%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-06 09:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.39%EV -44.67%E -5.32%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.61%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098% | 4.5% | 2026-05-06 08:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.42%EV -45.33%E -5.46%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.58%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 08:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 8.26I 12.11%NM 11.85%EV -45.59%E -5.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.15%EV +3.69%E +3.32%K +33.53%G +1.24% | 2.2% | 2026-05-06 08:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -47.30%E -5.91%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-06 08:58 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -47.30%E -5.91%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.50%EV -2.85%E -2.74%K -71.27%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-06 09:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.79I 12.84%NM 12.37%EV -48.69%E -6.25%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.63%EV +2.75%E +2.50%K +27.54%G +0.759% | 3.7% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.20%EV -49.28%E -6.40%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.80%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 09:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -50.60%E -6.75%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 09:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -50.60%E -6.75%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 09:08 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -53.89%E -7.70%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -53.89%E -7.70%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -57.18%E -8.80%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098% | 8.0% | 2026-05-06 09:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 32.00I 3.13%NM 3.12% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.88% | 0.2% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51% | 0.5% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51% | 0.5% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.33% | 0.8% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.51% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.49% | 1.6% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Novig◎ | 15.38I 6.50%NM 6.11% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 93.89% | 6.5% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |