L’École des cotes

Lucrezia Stefanini v Jelena Ostapenko

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-06 10:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Lucrezia Stefanini (Local)

Prévision 6.59%15.18cote équitable
EV +77.85%
Avantage +2.88%
Kelly +2.99%
Croissance +2.33%

avec la cote maximale 27.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
3.61%7.16%6.37%14.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.5013.1413.0027.0015.38%7.61%7.69%3.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Jelena Ostapenko (Visiteur)

Prévision 93.41%1.07cote équitable
EV +3.69%
Avantage +3.32%
Kelly +33.53%
Croissance +1.24%

avec la cote maximale 1.11

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
85.75%92.84%93.63%96.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.001.031.021.11100.00%96.95%98.04%90.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
DraftKings27.00I 3.70%NM 3.61%EV +77.85%E +2.88%K +2.99%G +2.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 96.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-06 09:18
Winamax (FR)22.00I 4.55%NM 4.39%EV +44.92%E +2.04%K +2.14%G +0.961%1.01I 99.01%NM 95.61%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-06 09:19
Winamax (DE)22.00I 4.55%NM 4.39%EV +44.92%E +2.04%K +2.14%G +0.961%1.01I 99.01%NM 95.61%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-06 09:20
BoyleSports21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +38.33%E +1.83%K +1.92%G +0.735%1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-06 09:20
Coral21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +38.33%E +1.83%K +1.92%G +0.735%1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-06 09:19
Betway21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +38.33%E +1.83%K +1.92%G +0.735%1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -6.59%E -6.59%K +0.000%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-06 09:19
Hard Rock Bet18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV +21.86%E +1.18%K +1.25%G +0.273%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-06 09:17
theScore Bet18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +18.57%E +1.03%K +1.09%G +0.203%1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-06 09:19
Unibet (SE)18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +18.57%E +1.03%K +1.09%G +0.203%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-06 09:17
Ladbrokes (UK)17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090%1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-06 09:19
Coolbet17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-06 09:19
888sport17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-06 09:20
Mr Green (SE)17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-06 09:19
888sport (SE)17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-06 09:19
Fanatics17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV +11.98%E +0.705%K +0.749%G +0.090%1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -6.59%E -6.59%K +0.000%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-06 09:19
BetMGM16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +5.39%E +0.337%K +0.360%G +0.019%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 09:18
Unibet15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:15
Casumo15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:15
FanDuel15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:20
Svenska Spel15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:14
betPARX15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:15
ATG (SE)15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:15
PointsBet (AU)15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 09:19
TAB15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -1.19%E -0.080%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 09:14
Unibet (NL)14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -7.78%E -0.556%K -0.598%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 09:14
NordicBet14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -7.78%E -0.556%K -0.598%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-06 09:20
Betsson13.50I 7.41%NM 6.96%EV -11.07%E -0.820%K -0.886%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.04%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 09:18
Virgin Bet13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 09:15
LiveScore Bet13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 09:14
BetRivers13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 09:15
Grosvenor13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 09:15
Bet Victor13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 09:20
Paddy Power13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 09:19
Caesars13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.37%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 09:19
TABtouch12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.95%E -1.75%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 09:14
Bally Bet12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.95%E -1.75%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 09:14
Tipico (DE)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -27.54%E -2.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -4.72%E -4.63%K -235.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 09:14
LeoVegas11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -27.54%E -2.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 09:13
LeoVegas (SE)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -30.83%E -2.94%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 91.23%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-06 09:14
Fliff10.30I 9.71%NM 8.93%EV -32.15%E -3.12%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 91.07%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 09:12
Betclic (FR)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -34.13%E -3.41%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 09:18
BetUS9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -40.72%E -4.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-06 09:03
1xBet8.98I 11.14%NM 10.65%EV -40.85%E -4.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.35%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-06 08:59
SportsBet8.60I 11.63%NM 11.07%EV -43.35%E -5.04%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.93%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 09:05
LowVig.ag8.54I 11.71%NM 11.23%EV -43.75%E -5.12%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.77%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098%4.3%2026-05-06 09:05
BetOnline.ag8.54I 11.71%NM 11.23%EV -43.75%E -5.12%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.77%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098%4.3%2026-05-06 09:05
Unibet (UK)8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -44.01%E -5.18%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 08:59
PMU (FR)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -44.01%E -5.18%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 89.38%EV -5.65%E -5.60%K -565.30%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-06 09:10
ReBet8.40I 11.90%NM 11.39%EV -44.67%E -5.32%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.61%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098%4.5%2026-05-06 08:59
Marathon Bet8.30I 12.05%NM 11.42%EV -45.33%E -5.46%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.58%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-06 08:59
GTbets8.26I 12.11%NM 11.85%EV -45.59%E -5.52%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 88.15%EV +3.69%E +3.32%K +33.53%G +1.24%2.2%2026-05-06 08:59
William Hill8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -47.30%E -5.91%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-06 08:58
Bet Right8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -47.30%E -5.91%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.50%EV -2.85%E -2.74%K -71.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 09:04
Pinnacle7.79I 12.84%NM 12.37%EV -48.69%E -6.25%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 87.63%EV +2.75%E +2.50%K +27.54%G +0.759%3.7%2026-05-06 09:05
Unibet (FR)7.70I 12.99%NM 12.20%EV -49.28%E -6.40%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 87.80%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 09:04
Betr (AU)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -50.60%E -6.75%K -7.78%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098%5.9%2026-05-06 09:04
PlayUp7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -50.60%E -6.75%K -7.78%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098%5.9%2026-05-06 09:08
Ladbrokes (AU)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -53.89%E -7.70%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-06 09:05
Neds7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -53.89%E -7.70%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -0.048%E -0.045%K -0.690%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-06 09:05
Everygame6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -57.18%E -8.80%K -10.40%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV +0.886%E +0.820%K +11.07%G +0.098%8.0%2026-05-06 09:04
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)32.00I 3.13%NM 3.12%1.03I 97.09%NM 96.88%0.2%2026-05-06 09:20
Smarkets40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%0.5%2026-05-06 09:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%0.5%2026-05-06 09:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67%1.03I 97.09%NM 96.33%0.8%2026-05-06 09:20
Matchbook28.00I 3.57%NM 3.51%1.02I 98.04%NM 96.49%1.6%2026-05-06 09:20
Novig15.38I 6.50%NM 6.11%1.00I 100.00%NM 93.89%6.5%2026-05-06 09:20