Language:English
Jessica Pegula v Jelena Ostapenko
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jessica Pegula (Local)
Prediction 81.07%1.23fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.898%
Kelly -4.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.92%81.04%81.30%84.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.171.171.2290.09%85.25%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jelena Ostapenko (Visit)
Prediction 18.93%5.28fair odd
EV +18.13%
Edge +2.90%
Kelly +3.46%
Growth +0.627%
assuming max odds 6.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.33%18.96%18.70%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.804.806.2425.00%20.82%20.83%16.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jessica Pegula (Local): 81.07%; Jelena Ostapenko (Visit): 18.93%. For Jelena Ostapenko (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.28. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.24, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.13%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.67%EV -8.39%E -7.43%K -64.55%G +0.000% | 6.24I 16.03%NM 15.33%EV +18.13%E +2.90%K +3.46%G +0.627% | 4.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -9.20%E -8.22%K -76.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +13.58%E +2.26%K +2.72%G +0.369% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -10.01%E -9.02%K -91.03%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +13.58%E +2.26%K +2.72%G +0.369% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +4.12%E +0.749%K +0.915%G +0.038% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -8.39%E -7.43%K -64.55%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +4.12%E +0.749%K +0.915%G +0.038% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -9.20%E -8.22%K -76.69%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +4.12%E +0.749%K +0.915%G +0.038% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -5.96%E -5.14%K -37.25%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +0.332%E +0.063%K +0.077%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.15%E -4.40%K -30.29%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -0.614%E -0.117%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -0.614%E -0.117%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -7.58%E -6.65%K -54.15%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -0.614%E -0.117%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -1.56%E -0.300%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.14%EV -9.20%E -8.22%K -76.69%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.86%EV -2.51%E -0.487%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.15%E -4.40%K -30.29%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.45%E -0.677%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.15%E -4.40%K -30.29%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.45%E -0.677%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.15%E -4.40%K -30.29%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.45%E -0.677%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.35%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.35%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.35%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.35%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.58%E -6.65%K -54.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.35%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.15%E -4.40%K -30.29%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -7.24%E -1.48%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.00%EV -1.10%E -0.898%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.88I 20.49%NM 20.00%EV -7.62%E -1.56%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.34%E -3.68%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -9.13%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.34%E -3.68%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -9.13%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.34%E -3.68%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -9.13%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.34%E -3.68%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -9.13%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.15%E -4.40%K -30.29%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -9.13%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.96%E -5.14%K -37.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -9.13%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.96%E -5.14%K -37.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -9.13%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.96%E -5.14%K -37.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -9.13%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.34%E -3.68%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -10.08%E -2.12%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -10.08%E -2.12%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -10.08%E -2.12%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -11.97%E -2.57%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.15%E -4.40%K -30.29%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -12.92%E -2.81%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-09 18:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -1.91%E -1.58%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -14.06%E -3.10%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:08 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -1.10%E -0.898%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -14.81%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 18:03 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -1.10%E -0.898%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -14.81%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -1.10%E -0.898%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -14.81%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -1.91%E -1.58%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -14.81%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-09 18:08 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.15%E -4.40%K -30.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -14.81%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -5.96%E -5.14%K -37.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -14.81%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -2.72%E -2.26%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -16.71%E -3.80%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 18:13 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -2.72%E -2.26%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -16.71%E -3.80%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 18:13 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -2.72%E -2.26%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -16.71%E -3.80%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 18:08 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.34%E -3.68%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -16.71%E -3.80%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -5.96%E -5.14%K -37.25%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -16.71%E -3.80%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-09 18:13 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.28%EV -6.77%E -5.89%K -45.13%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -16.71%E -3.80%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.21%EV -1.10%E -0.898%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.79%EV -17.08%E -3.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 18:07 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -2.72%E -2.26%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -18.60%E -4.33%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-09 18:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -1.10%E -0.898%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -19.55%E -4.60%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 17:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -1.10%E -0.898%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -20.49%E -4.88%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 18:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -1.10%E -0.898%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -20.49%E -4.88%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 18:07 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -2.72%E -2.26%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -20.49%E -4.88%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-09 18:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -1.10%E -0.898%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -21.44%E -5.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 18:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -2.72%E -2.26%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -24.28%E -6.07%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-09 18:08 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -2.72%E -2.26%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -24.28%E -6.07%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-09 18:07 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71% | 0.8% | 2026-03-09 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04% | 0.9% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.16% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.84% | 2.1% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 84.10% | 5.29I 18.90%NM 15.90% | 18.9% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |