Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 53.79%1.86fair odd
EV +15.65%
Edge +7.28%
Kelly +13.61%
Growth +2.13%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.01%53.17%54.11%62.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.781.732.1566.23%56.16%57.97%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jessica Pegula (Visit)
Prediction 46.21%2.16fair odd
EV +16.45%
Edge +6.53%
Kelly +10.82%
Growth +1.78%
assuming max odds 2.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.93%46.83%45.89%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.682.042.012.5259.52%49.08%49.75%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 53.79%; Jessica Pegula (Visit): 46.21%. For Jessica Pegula (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.45%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV +15.65%E +7.28%K +13.61%G +2.13% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -21.91%E -12.96%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV +12.96%E +6.17%K +11.78%G +1.53% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -21.44%E -12.61%K -30.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV +11.88%E +5.71%K +11.00%G +1.31% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -19.60%E -11.26%K -26.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV +11.88%E +5.71%K +11.00%G +1.31% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -19.60%E -11.26%K -26.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV +11.88%E +5.71%K +11.00%G +1.31% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -19.60%E -11.26%K -26.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV +11.88%E +5.71%K +11.00%G +1.31% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -19.60%E -11.26%K -26.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV +11.35%E +5.48%K +10.60%G +1.20% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -18.67%E -10.61%K -24.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV +10.81%E +5.25%K +10.20%G +1.10% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -20.06%E -11.59%K -27.48%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.50%EV +10.81%E +5.25%K +10.20%G +1.10% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -20.52%E -11.93%K -28.50%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV +10.27%E +5.01%K +9.78%G +1.00% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -18.21%E -10.29%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV +10.27%E +5.01%K +9.78%G +1.00% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -20.98%E -12.27%K -29.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV +8.66%E +4.29%K +8.49%G +0.735% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -21.44%E -12.61%K -30.63%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV +8.66%E +4.29%K +8.49%G +0.735% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -22.37%E -13.31%K -32.89%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +7.58%E +3.79%K +7.58%G +0.575% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -15.44%E -8.44%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -1.56%E -0.854%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -9.89%E -5.07%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -1.56%E -0.854%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.74%E -6.15%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -1.56%E -0.854%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -12.20%E -6.42%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.71%E -2.08%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.66%E -3.30%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.71%E -2.08%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.66%E -3.30%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.79%E -2.71%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.58%E -3.79%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.33%E -3.03%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.88%E -1.87%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -5.33%E -3.03%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -7.58%E -3.79%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.87%E -3.35%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.96%E -1.41%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-20 10:18 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.87%E -3.35%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.96%E -1.41%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.87%E -3.35%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.58%E -3.79%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.94%E -4.01%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.58%E -3.79%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.48%E -4.35%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.58%E -3.79%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -8.02%E -4.69%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -9.89%E -5.07%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.56%E -5.03%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.58%E -3.79%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -8.56%E -5.03%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -11.28%E -5.87%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -9.09%E -5.38%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV +1.66%E +0.755%K +1.38%G +0.023% | 4.6% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.59%EV -9.63%E -5.73%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.41%EV -10.35%E -5.34%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.17%E -6.09%K -15.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.96%E -1.41%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.17%E -6.09%K -15.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.96%E -1.41%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -10.17%E -6.09%K -15.18%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -5.27%E -2.57%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -11.25%E -6.82%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +3.97%E +1.76%K +3.18%G +0.126% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 10:18 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -11.25%E -6.82%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +1.66%E +0.755%K +1.38%G +0.023% | 6.1% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -12.32%E -7.56%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV +1.66%E +0.755%K +1.38%G +0.023% | 6.8% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -12.86%E -7.94%K -20.74%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV +13.21%E +5.39%K +9.11%G +1.20% | 2.5% | 2026-06-20 09:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -12.86%E -7.94%K -20.74%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV +11.83%E +4.89%K +8.33%G +0.985% | 3.1% | 2026-06-20 10:07 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -12.86%E -7.94%K -20.74%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV +11.83%E +4.89%K +8.33%G +0.985% | 3.1% | 2026-06-20 10:08 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -12.86%E -7.94%K -20.74%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +3.97%E +1.76%K +3.18%G +0.126% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 10:18 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -12.86%E -7.94%K -20.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +1.66%E +0.755%K +1.38%G +0.023% | 7.2% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -13.40%E -8.32%K -21.96%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -0.650%E -0.302%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -13.93%E -8.71%K -23.22%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +6.28%E +2.73%K +4.83%G +0.304% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 09:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -15.01%E -9.50%K -25.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV +6.28%E +2.73%K +4.83%G +0.304% | 6.8% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -15.55%E -9.90%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +10.90%E +4.54%K +7.79%G +0.849% | 5.4% | 2026-06-20 10:07 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -15.55%E -9.90%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +6.28%E +2.73%K +4.83%G +0.304% | 7.2% | 2026-06-20 10:07 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -15.55%E -9.90%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +6.28%E +2.73%K +4.83%G +0.304% | 7.2% | 2026-06-20 10:07 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -16.09%E -10.31%K -28.73%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV +3.97%E +1.76%K +3.18%G +0.126% | 8.5% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -17.16%E -11.14%K -31.78%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV +16.45%E +6.53%K +10.82%G +1.78% | 4.6% | 2026-06-20 09:58 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.77%EV -18.78%E -12.43%K -36.82%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.23%EV +12.75%E +5.23%K +8.85%G +1.13% | 7.2% | 2026-06-20 10:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 0.4% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 0.4% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45% | 4.8% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 10:20 |