Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Ekaterina Alexandrova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 82.08%1.22fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -7.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.58%82.02%82.24%83.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.161.171.2090.09%85.96%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visit)
Prediction 17.92%5.58fair odd
EV +4.63%
Edge +0.793%
Kelly +0.957%
Growth +0.044%
assuming max odds 5.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.69%17.98%17.76%20.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.135.005.8421.74%19.51%20.00%17.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 82.08%; Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visit): 17.92%. For Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.58. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.63%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.31%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.84I 17.12%NM 16.69%EV +4.63%E +0.793%K +0.957%G +0.044% | 2.6% | 2026-08-08 22:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.97%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.03%EV +2.12%E +0.373%K +0.452%G +0.010% | 3.0% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.09%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.91%EV +2.12%E +0.373%K +0.452%G +0.010% | 3.8% | 2026-08-08 21:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +0.333%E +0.060%K +0.072%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-08 22:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.63%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.37%EV -1.10%E -0.199%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-08 22:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.63%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.37%EV -1.10%E -0.199%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-08 22:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-08 22:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 22:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 22:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 22:13 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.42%E -5.64%K -45.89%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 23:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -8.07%E -7.20%K -67.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -8.89%E -8.01%K -80.80%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-08 20:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.01%EV -1.50%E -1.25%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.47I 18.28%NM 17.99%EV -2.00%E -0.365%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-08-08 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.25%E -0.602%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 22:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.25%E -0.602%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 22:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.25%E -0.602%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 22:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.25%E -0.602%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -6.42%E -5.64%K -45.89%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -5.04%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 22:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.89%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.29I 18.90%NM 18.11%EV -5.22%E -0.987%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 23:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 20:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 22:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 22:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.42%E -5.64%K -45.89%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 22:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.86%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.14%EV -7.01%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.86%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.14%EV -7.01%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.62%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.38%EV -7.73%E -1.50%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 23:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.75%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.25%EV -7.73%E -1.50%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-08 20:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.63%E -1.69%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 23:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-08 19:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 07:21 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 16:18 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 21:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 21:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 21:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 21:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 16:18 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 21:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 22:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 06:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 06:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.60%E -4.87%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 06:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.42%E -5.64%K -45.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 21:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.42%E -5.64%K -45.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 22:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 19:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -3.96%E -3.39%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -14.00%E -2.92%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 15:28 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -14.90%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -14.90%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -15.79%E -3.36%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 21:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -17.58%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-08 06:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -3.14%E -2.66%K -17.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -17.58%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-08 06:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -4.78%E -4.12%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -17.58%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 22:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.79% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 16.21% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88% | 1.6% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |