Language:English
Nicolas Mejia v Michael Zheng
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nicolas Mejia (Local)
Prediction 22.14%4.52fair odd
EV +6.28%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.104%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.00%22.54%22.02%27.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.464.224.104.8028.90%23.72%24.39%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michael Zheng (Visit)
Prediction 77.86%1.28fair odd
EV +3.55%
Edge +2.67%
Kelly +10.76%
Growth +0.382%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.23%77.46%77.98%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.211.211.3386.96%82.89%82.64%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nicolas Mejia (Local): 22.14%; Michael Zheng (Visit): 77.86%. For Nicolas Mejia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV -23.39%E -6.76%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV +3.55%E +2.67%K +10.76%G +0.382% | 4.1% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.68%E -2.14%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -15.86%E -4.17%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -2.68%E -2.14%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 11:43 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -16.97%E -4.53%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -2.68%E -2.14%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-01 11:48 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.45%E -2.79%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.01%E -4.11%K -22.78%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 11:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.79%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.01%E -4.11%K -22.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.01%E -4.11%K -22.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.01%E -4.11%K -22.78%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.12%EV +0.078%E +0.017%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.88%EV -5.79%E -4.79%K -27.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.79%E -4.79%K -27.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.79%E -4.79%K -27.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.58%E -0.586%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.79%E -4.79%K -27.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.79%E -4.79%K -27.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.79%E -4.79%K -27.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.79%E -4.79%K -27.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.22%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.79%E -4.79%K -27.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +6.28%E +1.31%K +1.65%G +0.104% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -6.57%E -5.47%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.57%E -5.47%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 11:48 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.57%E -5.47%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -5.90%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.57%E -5.47%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -5.90%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.57%E -5.47%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.57%E -5.47%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.57%E -5.47%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -15.86%E -4.17%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%EV -6.57%E -5.47%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-01 11:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -7.35%E -6.17%K -38.67%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%EV -12.54%E -3.18%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.85%EV -7.35%E -6.17%K -38.67%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +1.85%E +0.402%K +0.514%G +0.009% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.13%E -6.89%K -45.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +1.85%E +0.402%K +0.514%G +0.009% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.13%E -6.89%K -45.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.24I 23.58%NM 21.77%EV -6.12%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.23%EV -8.13%E -6.89%K -45.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.24I 23.58%NM 21.77%EV -6.12%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.23%EV -8.13%E -6.89%K -45.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.91%E -7.61%K -52.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.91%E -7.61%K -52.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.91%E -7.61%K -52.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.91%E -7.61%K -52.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.91%E -7.61%K -52.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.365%E -0.081%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.91%E -7.61%K -52.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -5.90%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.41%EV -8.91%E -7.61%K -52.38%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -8.91%E -7.61%K -52.38%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 77.67%EV -10.46%E -9.10%K -69.75%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.77% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.23% | 2.2% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40% | 2.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| Novig◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.45% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55% | 7.4% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |