Language:English
Marco Trungelliti v Martin Damm Jr.
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marco Trungelliti (Local)
Prediction 23.37%4.28fair odd
EV +9.36%
Edge +2.00%
Kelly +2.54%
Growth +0.238%
assuming max odds 4.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.81%23.46%23.22%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.454.064.104.6828.99%24.65%24.39%21.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Martin Damm Jr. (Visit)
Prediction 76.63%1.30fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -6.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.40%76.54%76.78%79.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.2883.33%80.84%80.65%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marco Trungelliti (Local): 23.37%; Martin Damm Jr. (Visit): 76.63%. For Marco Trungelliti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.36%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.68I 21.37%NM 20.81%EV +9.36%E +2.00%K +2.54%G +0.238% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.19%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.96%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV +5.15%E +1.14%K +1.47%G +0.076% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.96%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +5.15%E +1.14%K +1.47%G +0.076% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.04%E -6.70%K -40.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 09:57 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +5.15%E +1.14%K +1.47%G +0.076% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.04%E -6.70%K -40.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +5.15%E +1.14%K +1.47%G +0.076% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.04%E -6.70%K -40.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +5.15%E +1.14%K +1.47%G +0.076% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.04%E -6.70%K -40.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV +1.65%E +0.379%K +0.492%G +0.008% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +1.65%E +0.379%K +0.492%G +0.008% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +1.18%E +0.272%K +0.354%G +0.004% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV +0.479%E +0.111%K +0.145%G +0.001% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.690%E -0.162%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.43%EV -1.39%E -0.330%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.57%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.86%E -0.442%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.86%E -0.442%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.86%E -0.442%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.74%EV -2.33%E -0.556%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.26%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-29 09:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -3.03%E -0.729%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -3.03%E -0.729%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -5.36%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -6.30%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-29 09:46 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.70%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.70%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -7.70%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -7.27%E -6.01%K -34.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -8.87%E -2.27%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -1.91%E -1.49%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -8.87%E -2.27%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -1.91%E -1.49%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -8.87%E -2.27%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.44%E -2.73%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -8.87%E -2.27%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.87%E -2.27%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.87%E -2.27%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -10.04%E -2.61%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -11.20%E -2.95%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -3.44%E -2.73%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -11.20%E -2.95%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -3.44%E -2.73%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.20%E -2.95%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.20%E -2.95%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -12.37%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.68%E -2.11%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.37%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.37%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.51%E -5.33%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -13.54%E -3.66%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -2.68%E -2.11%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.56%EV -14.24%E -3.88%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.44%EV -3.44%E -2.73%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.56%EV -14.24%E -3.88%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.44%EV -3.44%E -2.73%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -19.38%E -5.62%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 1.1% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.65I 21.51%NM 21.19% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.81% | 1.5% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Novig◎ | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.97% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.03% | 2.5% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04% | 3.7% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |