Language:English
Jesper De Jong v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jesper De Jong (Local)
Prediction 16.76%5.97fair odd
EV +7.28%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.098%
assuming max odds 6.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.89%16.92%17.04%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.395.506.4021.74%18.54%18.18%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 83.24%1.20fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -9.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.00%83.08%82.96%85.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.141.1890.09%86.98%87.72%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jesper De Jong (Local): 16.76%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 83.24%. For Jesper De Jong (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.97. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +7.28%E +1.14%K +1.35%G +0.098% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +7.28%E +1.14%K +1.35%G +0.098% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-01 13:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV +3.93%E +0.634%K +0.756%G +0.030% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -7.61%E -6.85%K -69.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.09I 16.42%NM 16.00%EV +2.09%E +0.342%K +0.410%G +0.009% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.00%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-07-01 13:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV +1.41%E +0.234%K +0.280%G +0.004% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +0.577%E +0.096%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.577%E +0.096%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.577%E +0.096%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.577%E +0.096%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +0.577%E +0.096%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +0.577%E +0.096%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-01 13:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +0.577%E +0.096%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -2.78%E -0.479%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -2.78%E -0.479%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.78%E -0.479%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -2.78%E -0.479%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.61%E -0.629%K -0.761%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.67%EV -5.29%E -0.936%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.33%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.71%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -6.13%E -1.09%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -6.13%E -1.09%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.04%EV -6.97%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.96%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.53I 18.08%NM 17.09%EV -7.30%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.91%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 13:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 09:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 11:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -7.80%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -9.48%E -1.76%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -9.48%E -1.76%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.36I 18.66%NM 17.79%EV -10.15%E -1.89%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.21%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -12.00%E -2.28%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-01 13:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.19%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.61%E -2.23%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 07:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -16.19%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 13:18 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -16.19%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.50%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-30 21:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -18.70%E -3.86%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:28 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 09:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -19.54%E -4.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -2.61%E -2.23%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -20.38%E -4.29%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -1.78%E -1.51%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 09:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -20.38%E -4.29%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -2.61%E -2.23%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-01 11:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -20.38%E -4.29%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -2.61%E -2.23%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -21.21%E -4.51%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-01 09:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -22.89%E -4.98%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-01 09:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 0.2% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 0.2% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 12:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 13:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.50I 15.38%NM 15.14% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.86% | 1.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.23% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.77% | 2.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Novig◎ | 6.06I 16.50%NM 15.83% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.17% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |