StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Alex Michelsen v Jacob Fearnley

Matchstart: 2026-06-30 11:30 UTC

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

64 spelbolag (22 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Alex Michelsen (Hemma)

Prognos 58.13%1.72rättvist odds
EV -0.592%
Fördel -0.346%
Kelly -0.833%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.71

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
56.10%58.12%58.13%60.35%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.571.641.641.7163.69%61.13%60.98%58.48%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Jacob Fearnley (Borta)

Prognos 41.87%2.39rättvist odds
EV +1.32%
Fördel +0.544%
Kelly +0.927%
Tillväxt +0.012%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.42

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
39.65%41.88%41.87%43.90%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.162.262.252.4246.30%44.28%44.44%41.32%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Alex Michelsen (Hemma): 58.13%; Jacob Fearnley (Borta): 41.87%. För Jacob Fearnley (Borta) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 2.39. 2 spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån; bästa odds var 2.42, motsvarande ett positivt väntevärde på +1.32%.

Spelbolagsodds (64 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemmaBorta ▼MarginalUppdaterat
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -7.57%E -4.76%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV +1.32%E +0.544%K +0.927%G +0.012%4.2%2026-06-30 11:15
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV +0.479%E +0.200%K +0.342%G +0.002%3.0%2026-06-30 11:20
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.61%E -0.687%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-30 11:19
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.29%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 11:20
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-30 11:18
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-30 11:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-30 11:20
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-30 11:19
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-30 11:19
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-30 11:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-30 11:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-30 11:19
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-30 11:19
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.57%E -4.76%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 11:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -3.50%E -2.11%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -4.13%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-30 11:20
ReBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -3.50%E -2.11%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -4.13%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-30 11:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.12%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.88%EV -4.13%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-30 11:20
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -4.13%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 11:19
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -3.50%E -2.11%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -5.38%E -2.38%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-30 11:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -5.38%E -2.38%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-30 11:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.34%E -1.39%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-30 11:20
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.92%E -1.75%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-30 11:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 11:20
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 11:19
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 11:20
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 11:20
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 11:20
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 11:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 11:19
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:20
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:20
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:19
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:20
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:20
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:20
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:20
Bally Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 11:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 11:20
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 11:19
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 11:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-30 11:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-30 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.73%E -5.56%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-30 11:19
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.73%E -5.56%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-30 11:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -6.64%E -2.98%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 11:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -6.64%E -2.98%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 11:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.64%E -2.98%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-30 11:20
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -7.06%E -3.18%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 11:20
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -7.06%E -3.18%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 11:19
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -0.592%E -0.346%K -0.833%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-30 11:19
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -1.75%E -1.04%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-30 11:20
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.92%E -1.75%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 11:20
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.92%E -1.75%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 11:20
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-30 11:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 11:20
Dabble (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 11:19
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-30 11:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -1.75%E -1.04%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -9.57%E -4.43%K -8.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-30 11:20
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (7)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-06-30 11:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-06-30 11:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-06-30 11:20
Matchbook1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%0.6%2026-06-30 11:20
ProphetX1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%0.9%2026-06-30 11:20
Novig1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-06-30 11:18
Smarkets1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%2.0%2026-06-30 11:20