Alex Michelsen v Jacob Fearnley

Inicio: 2026-06-30 11:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (22 en el análisis )

58%

42%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Alex Michelsen (Local)

Predicción 58.13%1.72momio equitativo

EV -0.592%

Ventaja -0.346%

Kelly -0.833%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

56.10%58.12%58.13%60.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Distribución de los momios

1.571.641.641.7163.69%61.13%60.98%58.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Jacob Fearnley (Visitante)

Predicción 41.87%2.39momio equitativo

EV +1.32%

Ventaja +0.544%

Kelly +0.927%

Crecimiento +0.012%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

39.65%41.88%41.87%43.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Distribución de los momios

2.162.262.252.4246.30%44.28%44.44%41.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
Betclic (FR)	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -7.57%E -4.76%K -12.83%G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV +1.32%E +0.544%K +0.927%G +0.012%	4.2%	2026-06-30 11:15
Pinnacle	1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV +0.479%E +0.200%K +0.342%G +0.002%	3.0%	2026-06-30 11:20
Coolbet	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.61%E -0.687%K -1.20%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-06-30 11:19
1xBet	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%	2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.29%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-30 11:20
Betway	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-06-30 11:18
Bovada	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-06-30 11:19
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-06-30 11:20
Neds	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-06-30 11:19
888sport	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-30 11:19
BetMGM	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-30 11:19
Mr Green (SE)	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-30 11:19
888sport (SE)	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-30 11:19
Everygame	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.64%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-30 11:19
Caesars	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.57%E -4.76%K -12.83%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -3.71%E -1.61%K -2.85%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-30 11:19
Codere (IT)	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -3.50%E -2.11%K -5.30%G +0.000%	2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -4.13%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-30 11:20
ReBet	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -3.50%E -2.11%K -5.30%G +0.000%	2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -4.13%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-30 11:19
Unibet (UK)	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.12%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.88%EV -4.13%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-06-30 11:20
DraftKings	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -4.13%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-30 11:19
FanDuel	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -3.50%E -2.11%K -5.30%G +0.000%	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -5.38%E -2.38%K -4.27%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-06-30 11:19
MyBookie.ag	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -5.38%E -2.38%K -4.27%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-30 11:19
Winamax (DE)	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.34%E -1.39%K -3.43%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-06-30 11:20
Sky Bet	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.92%E -1.75%K -4.35%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-06-30 11:19
Unibet (FR)	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-30 11:20
TAB	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-30 11:19
SportsBet	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-30 11:20
BetAnything	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-30 11:20
BetUS	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-30 11:20
theScore Bet	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-30 11:19
Hard Rock Bet	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-30 11:19
Unibet	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
BetRivers	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
Unibet (SE)	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
Grosvenor	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:19
LeoVegas	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:19
LeoVegas (SE)	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
Casumo	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:19
Unibet (NL)	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
TABtouch	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:19
ATG (SE)	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
betPARX	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
Bally Bet	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:19
Svenska Spel	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
PointsBet (AU)	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-30 11:19
Tipico (DE)	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-30 11:20
Paddy Power	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-30 11:19
betfred_uk	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-30 11:20
Betr (AU)	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.40%E -3.98%K -10.50%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-06-30 11:20
NetBet (FR)	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.64%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-30 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.73%E -5.56%K -15.32%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-30 11:19
Coral	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.73%E -5.56%K -15.32%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.80%E -2.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-30 11:19
Virgin Bet	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -6.64%E -2.98%K -5.40%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-30 11:19
LiveScore Bet	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -6.64%E -2.98%K -5.40%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-30 11:19
PMU (FR)	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.82%E -3.59%K -9.39%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.64%E -2.98%K -5.40%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-06-30 11:20
Betsson	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -7.06%E -3.18%K -5.78%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
NordicBet	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -5.24%E -3.22%K -8.32%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -7.06%E -3.18%K -5.78%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-30 11:19
GTbets	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -0.592%E -0.346%K -0.833%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-30 11:19
Fanatics	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -1.75%E -1.04%K -2.54%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-06-30 11:20
BoyleSports	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.92%E -1.75%K -4.35%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-30 11:20
William Hill	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.92%E -1.75%K -4.35%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-30 11:20
PlayUp	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.08%E -2.47%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-30 11:19
Winamax (FR)	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-30 11:20
Dabble (AU)	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.66%E -2.84%K -7.28%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-30 11:19
Bet Victor	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.64%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.89%E -3.59%K -6.58%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-30 11:19
Marathon Bet	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -1.75%E -1.04%K -2.54%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -9.57%E -4.43%K -8.25%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-06-30 11:20

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%	2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%	0.2%	2026-06-30 11:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%	2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%	0.2%	2026-06-30 11:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%	2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%	0.2%	2026-06-30 11:20
Matchbook	1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%	2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%	0.6%	2026-06-30 11:20
ProphetX	1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%	0.9%	2026-06-30 11:20
Novig	1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%	2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%	1.9%	2026-06-30 11:18
Smarkets	1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%	2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%	2.0%	2026-06-30 11:20