Language:English
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo v Nicolas Mejia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local)
Prediction 56.22%1.78fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.595%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.35%56.29%56.41%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.691.701.7662.11%59.17%58.82%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nicolas Mejia (Visit)
Prediction 43.78%2.28fair odd
EV +0.687%
Edge +0.299%
Kelly +0.528%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%43.71%43.59%45.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.152.3050.00%46.39%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local): 56.22%; Nicolas Mejia (Visit): 43.78%. For Nicolas Mejia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.687%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.92%E -5.51%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +0.687%E +0.299%K +0.528%G +0.004% | 5.2% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -0.626%E -0.276%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.55%E -3.30%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.50%E -0.668%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.92%E -5.51%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -1.50%E -0.668%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.92%E -5.51%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -1.50%E -0.668%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 15:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -4.98%E -2.95%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -2.38%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-29 15:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -4.98%E -2.95%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -2.38%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-29 15:03 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -5.55%E -3.30%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -5.55%E -3.30%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -3.25%E -1.47%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.67%E -4.02%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.67%E -4.02%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-29 15:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.23%E -4.38%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -8.36%E -5.13%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.48%E -5.89%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.48%E -5.89%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.48%E -5.89%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -7.23%E -4.38%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -4.57%E -2.09%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%EV -1.05%E -0.595%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -5.88%E -2.73%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.86%E -2.26%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.88%E -2.73%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.88%E -2.73%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.88%E -2.73%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.23%E -4.38%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.88%E -2.73%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.23%E -4.38%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.88%E -2.73%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -1.61%E -0.920%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -6.76%E -3.17%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:08 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.19%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -1.61%E -0.920%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 15:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -1.61%E -0.920%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.17%E -1.25%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.17%E -1.25%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.86%E -2.26%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 15:08 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 15:07 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.11%E -3.66%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -8.51%E -4.07%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -3.30%E -1.92%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -8.94%E -4.30%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -8.94%E -4.30%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -5.55%E -3.30%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -12.45%E -6.22%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-29 15:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01% | 0.9% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08% | 1.6% | 2026-06-29 15:11 |
| Novig◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.04% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.96% | 2.5% | 2026-06-29 15:10 |