Idioma:Español
Rafael Jodar v Alejandro Tabilo
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Predicción 68.91%1.45momio equitativo
EV -3.53%
Ventaja -2.52%
Kelly -8.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.44%69.06%68.81%70.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.321.371.381.4075.76%72.95%72.46%71.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Alejandro Tabilo (Visitante)
Predicción 31.09%3.22momio equitativo
EV +1.05%
Ventaja +0.322%
Kelly +0.466%
Crecimiento +0.005%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.19%30.94%31.19%32.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.033.003.2534.48%32.99%33.33%30.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Rafael Jodar (Local): 68.91%; Alejandro Tabilo (Visitante): 31.09%. Para Alejandro Tabilo (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.22. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.05%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -7.66%E -5.72%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV +1.05%E +0.322%K +0.466%G +0.005% | 5.4% | 2026-08-02 00:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.83%EV -3.53%E -2.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 30.17%EV +0.736%E +0.227%K +0.329%G +0.002% | 2.3% | 2026-08-02 00:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.507%E -0.158%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-01 23:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.507%E -0.158%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -7.66%E -5.72%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -0.507%E -0.158%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.35%E -6.28%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -0.507%E -0.158%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-02 00:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -3.53%E -2.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -2.06%E -0.655%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.06%E -0.655%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.06%E -0.655%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.06%E -0.655%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-02 00:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -9.04%E -6.85%K -28.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -2.06%E -0.655%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-01 22:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -8.35%E -6.28%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -2.37%E -0.756%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.18%EV -4.22%E -3.03%K -10.81%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.82%EV -2.99%E -0.960%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 23:48 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.53%E -2.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-02 00:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-02 00:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -7.66%E -5.72%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-01 23:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.35%E -6.28%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.35%E -6.28%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.17%E -1.70%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.60%E -4.08%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.17%E -1.70%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 00:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.64%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.36%EV -6.10%E -2.02%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 00:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.60%E -4.08%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.60%E -4.08%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-02 00:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-02 00:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-01 19:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-01 19:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-01 05:53 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.35%E -6.28%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.35%E -6.28%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.53%E -2.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.28%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.28%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.28%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.60%E -4.08%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -8.28%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-02 00:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.60%E -4.08%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -8.28%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-02 00:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -8.28%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-01 19:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.53%E -2.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-02 00:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.53%E -2.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-02 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.53%E -2.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-02 00:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.53%E -2.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-02 00:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.53%E -2.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-02 00:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.91%E -3.56%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-02 00:22 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.28%E -4.62%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-02 00:19 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 0.2% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.2% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.64% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.36% | 1.9% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57% | 2.2% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43% | 2.8% | 2026-08-02 00:40 |