Language:English
Alex Michelsen v Mackenzie McDonald
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Prediction 75.60%1.32fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -8.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.22%75.56%75.44%76.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.2981.97%79.89%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mackenzie McDonald (Visit)
Prediction 24.40%4.10fair odd
EV +1.25%
Edge +0.302%
Kelly +0.398%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 4.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.01%24.44%24.56%26.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.873.904.1528.57%25.86%25.64%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Michelsen (Local): 75.60%; Mackenzie McDonald (Visit): 24.40%. For Mackenzie McDonald (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.57%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.43%EV +1.25%E +0.302%K +0.398%G +0.005% | 2.8% | 2026-07-28 13:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV +1.25%E +0.302%K +0.398%G +0.005% | 4.7% | 2026-07-28 16:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 11:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 12:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 13:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 15:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -7.01%E -5.70%K -30.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-28 16:33 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 15:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV -2.65%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-28 11:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV -2.65%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-28 11:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.76%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.24%EV -3.14%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-28 12:08 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.63%E -0.918%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-28 15:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.63%E -0.918%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-28 14:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-28 14:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-28 16:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-28 16:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-28 15:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 16:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 14:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 15:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -2.47%E -1.92%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 09:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 15:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 10:33 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 15:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.01%E -5.70%K -30.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 15:22 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 15:23 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.73%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.73%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.73%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 09:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.73%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 09:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-28 10:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-28 10:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.23%E -2.52%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 09:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.23%E -2.52%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 09:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-07-28 15:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36% | 1.9% | 2026-07-28 16:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.80% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.20% | 3.3% | 2026-07-28 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95% | 8.3% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95% | 8.3% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 49.76% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 50.24% | 95.1% | 2026-07-28 16:35 |
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