Idioma:Español
Alex Michelsen v Mackenzie McDonald
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Predicción 75.60%1.32momio equitativo
EV -2.47%
Ventaja -1.92%
Kelly -8.53%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.29
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.22%75.56%75.44%76.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.221.251.251.2981.97%79.89%80.00%77.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Mackenzie McDonald (Visitante)
Predicción 24.40%4.10momio equitativo
EV +1.25%
Ventaja +0.302%
Kelly +0.398%
Crecimiento +0.005%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.15
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.01%24.44%24.56%26.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.873.904.1528.57%25.86%25.64%24.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Alex Michelsen (Local): 75.60%; Mackenzie McDonald (Visitante): 24.40%. Para Mackenzie McDonald (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.10. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.15, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.25%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.57%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.43%EV +1.25%E +0.302%K +0.398%G +0.005% | 2.8% | 2026-07-28 13:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV +1.25%E +0.302%K +0.398%G +0.005% | 4.7% | 2026-07-28 16:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 11:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 12:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 13:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 15:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -7.01%E -5.70%K -30.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-28 16:33 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.41%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 15:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV -2.65%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-28 11:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV -2.65%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-28 11:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.76%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.24%EV -3.14%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-28 12:08 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.63%E -0.918%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-28 15:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.63%E -0.918%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-28 14:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 10:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-28 14:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-28 16:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-28 16:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-28 15:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 16:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 14:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 15:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -2.47%E -1.92%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.99%E -3.14%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 09:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 15:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 10:33 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 15:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.01%E -5.70%K -30.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-28 10:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 15:22 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 15:23 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.73%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.73%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.73%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 09:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.73%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 09:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-28 10:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-28 10:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.23%E -2.52%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 09:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.23%E -2.52%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 09:55 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-07-28 15:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36% | 1.9% | 2026-07-28 16:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.80% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.20% | 3.3% | 2026-07-28 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95% | 8.3% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95% | 8.3% | 2026-07-28 16:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 49.76% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 50.24% | 95.1% | 2026-07-28 16:35 |