Language:English
Rei Sakamoto v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rei Sakamoto (Local)
Prediction 23.37%4.28fair odd
EV +4.22%
Edge +0.946%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.051%
assuming max odds 4.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.77%23.32%23.36%25.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.034.004.4626.67%24.80%25.00%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 76.63%1.30fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.73%
Kelly -13.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.85%76.68%76.64%78.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.241.241.2682.64%80.65%80.65%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rei Sakamoto (Local): 23.37%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 76.63%. For Rei Sakamoto (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.46I 22.42%NM 21.89%EV +4.22%E +0.946%K +1.22%G +0.051% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.11%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.77%EV +3.29%E +0.743%K +0.961%G +0.032% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.23%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 22:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.77%EV +3.29%E +0.743%K +0.961%G +0.032% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.23%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 22:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +1.18%E +0.273%K +0.355%G +0.004% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.51%E -5.34%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 09:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.40%EV -0.453%E -0.106%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.60%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 13:26 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -0.686%E -0.161%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.85%E -0.442%K -0.580%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.85%E -0.442%K -0.580%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.85%E -0.442%K -0.580%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.85%E -0.442%K -0.580%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.51%E -5.34%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 22:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.85%E -0.442%K -0.580%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.51%E -5.34%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 22:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.92%EV -2.56%E -0.613%K -0.806%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.08%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -3.02%E -0.728%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-02 22:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -3.02%E -0.728%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.14%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 22:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-02 18:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.51%E -5.34%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 13:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.19%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.51%E -5.34%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.02I 24.88%NM 23.43%EV -6.06%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.57%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.02I 24.88%NM 23.43%EV -6.06%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.57%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -6.29%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 03:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 22:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 22:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 22:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 22:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.74%E -4.67%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.51%E -5.34%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-02 22:56 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.53%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.51%E -5.34%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -8.87%E -2.27%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 22:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -8.87%E -2.27%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.98%E -4.01%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -8.87%E -2.27%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -7.28%E -6.01%K -34.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -10.03%E -2.61%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.20%E -2.95%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 13:33 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.20%E -2.95%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 22:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -12.37%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -3.44%E -2.73%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -12.37%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -3.44%E -2.73%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.37%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.37%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.37%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.37%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.21%E -3.37%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-02 22:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.97% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.03% | 2.5% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01% | 3.4% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |