Language:English
Martin Damm Jr. v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Martin Damm Jr. (Local)
Prediction 23.37%4.28fair odd
EV +5.18%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.38%23.33%23.37%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.684.074.004.5027.17%24.56%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 76.63%1.31fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -2.74%
Kelly -13.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.25%76.67%76.63%78.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.2683.33%80.94%80.65%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Martin Damm Jr. (Local): 23.37%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 76.63%. For Martin Damm Jr. (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.18%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV +5.18%E +1.15%K +1.48%G +0.077% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-01 00:43 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.79%EV +4.02%E +0.902%K +1.16%G +0.047% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.21%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-01 00:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.79%EV +4.02%E +0.902%K +1.16%G +0.047% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.21%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-01 00:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV +4.02%E +0.902%K +1.16%G +0.047% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -7.28%E -6.02%K -34.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 16:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.83%EV +3.78%E +0.852%K +1.10%G +0.042% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.17%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +2.85%E +0.647%K +0.837%G +0.024% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 16:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +1.21%E +0.280%K +0.364%G +0.004% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 16:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +1.21%E +0.280%K +0.364%G +0.004% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 00:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +1.21%E +0.280%K +0.364%G +0.004% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -8.05%E -6.71%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 16:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -0.659%E -0.155%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 00:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.83%E -0.435%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-01 00:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.83%E -0.435%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-01 00:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.83%E -0.435%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 22:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.83%E -0.435%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.75%E -4.68%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.83%E -0.435%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 00:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.83%E -0.435%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 00:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.83%E -0.435%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 00:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.83%E -0.435%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 00:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -3.00%E -0.722%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.42%EV -3.70%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.58%EV -3.45%E -2.74%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-01 00:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 00:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 00:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 00:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 09:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 00:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -6.27%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-01 00:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-29 20:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.75%E -4.68%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 23:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -7.67%E -1.94%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -4.98%E -4.02%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.67%E -1.94%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -6.52%E -5.34%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -8.84%E -2.27%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:53 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -8.84%E -2.27%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 00:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.51%EV -9.31%E -2.40%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.49%EV -3.45%E -2.74%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 00:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -10.01%E -2.60%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -3.45%E -2.74%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -10.01%E -2.60%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.18%E -2.94%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.18%E -2.94%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 00:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.18%E -2.94%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 00:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -11.18%E -2.94%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.22%E -3.37%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-28 14:26 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 24.74%EV -13.98%E -3.80%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.26%EV -7.28%E -6.02%K -34.68%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-01 00:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.80% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.20% | 1.0% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 1.3% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| Novig◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.42% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.58% | 2.6% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.90% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 00:55 |