Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jakub Mensik v Learner Tien

2026-09-05 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jakub Mensik (Local)

Prediction 43.58%2.29fair odd
EV +2.41%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.78%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%43.48%43.61%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.032.182.172.3549.26%45.91%45.98%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Learner Tien (Visit)

Prediction 56.42%1.77fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.52%56.39%60.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.671.651.7464.10%60.06%60.61%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jakub Mensik (Local): 43.58%; Learner Tien (Visit): 56.42%. For Jakub Mensik (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.35, producing a positive expected value of +2.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +2.41%E +1.02%K +1.78%G +0.043%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.98%E -7.68%K -21.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 05:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.95%E -0.867%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 07:00
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 07:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:00
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.80%EV -3.26%E -1.47%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.20%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-04 07:00
GTbets🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.77%EV -3.69%E -1.67%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.23%EV -2.95%E -1.72%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 07:10
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -1.83%E -1.05%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 07:10
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 06:55
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.77%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:20
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.77%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:20
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.77%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.34%E -3.82%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 07:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -5.00%E -2.29%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 07:00
DraftKings🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.44%E -2.51%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 05:55
NordicBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -5.44%E -2.51%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -6.34%E -3.82%K -9.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 07:20
Betsson🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -5.44%E -2.51%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -6.34%E -3.82%K -9.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 07:20
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 07:10
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.52%E -2.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 07:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.65%E -2.75%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 06:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 07:00
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 07:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 07:20
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 06:15
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.77%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 07:00
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 04:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 07:01
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 07:00
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 07:20
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -7.62%E -3.59%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 07:20
MyBookie.ag🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.62%EV -8.05%E -3.82%K -7.25%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.38%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 07:10
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 07:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 07:05
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 07:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.60%E -5.31%K -13.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 07:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.85%EV -8.92%E -4.27%K -8.19%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.15%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 07:05
ReBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.78%EV -9.36%E -4.50%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.22%EV -8.60%E -5.31%K -13.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 07:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -10.67%E -5.20%K -10.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -9.72%E -6.08%K -16.21%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 07:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.84%EV -11.54%E -5.68%K -11.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.16%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 07:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%1.1%2026-09-04 07:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%1.5%2026-09-04 07:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%1.5%2026-09-04 07:00
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%1.5%2026-09-04 07:00
Novig2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61%1.5%2026-09-04 07:20
ProphetX2.25I 44.44%NM 43.75%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.25%1.6%2026-09-04 06:55
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-09-04 07:10