Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jakub Mensik v Learner Tien

2026-09-05 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jakub Mensik (Local)

Predicción 44.50%2.25momio equitativo
EV +0.135%
Ventaja +0.060%
Kelly +0.108%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.16%44.45%44.53%45.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.132.122.2550.00%47.02%47.17%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Learner Tien (Visitante)

Predicción 55.50%1.80momio equitativo
EV -2.33%
Ventaja -1.32%
Kelly -3.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.59%55.55%55.47%57.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.701.701.7661.73%58.94%58.82%56.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jakub Mensik (Local): 44.50%; Learner Tien (Visitante): 55.50%. Para Jakub Mensik (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.247. 8 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.250, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.135%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +0.135%E +0.060%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:40
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +0.135%E +0.060%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:40
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +0.135%E +0.060%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +0.135%E +0.060%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:40
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +0.135%E +0.060%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:40
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +0.135%E +0.060%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:40
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +0.135%E +0.060%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +0.135%E +0.060%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:40
GTbets🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.77%EV -1.65%E -0.745%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.23%EV -4.55%E -2.64%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 07:10
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -2.09%E -0.950%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -3.44%E -1.98%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 08:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.09%E -0.950%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 06:55
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.09%E -0.950%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 08:00
Caesars🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.09%E -0.950%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.32%E -4.38%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:24
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.78%EV -3.43%E -1.58%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.22%EV -2.33%E -1.32%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 07:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.87%E -1.79%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.87%E -1.79%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.87%E -1.79%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:20
BetRivers🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.87%E -1.79%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:20
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.87%E -1.79%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.87%E -1.79%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:20
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.32%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.99%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 08:00
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.32%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.10%E -2.98%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 07:47
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.32%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.21%E -3.68%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 08:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.32%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.21%E -3.68%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 08:20
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.32%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.43%E -5.11%K -12.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 04:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.27%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.73%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 08:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.65%E -2.67%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 08:15
MyBookie.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.65%E -2.67%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 08:15
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.36%EV -5.65%E -2.67%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.64%EV -6.21%E -3.68%K -9.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 08:10
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.36%EV -5.65%E -2.67%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.64%EV -6.21%E -3.68%K -9.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 08:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -5.65%E -2.67%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -6.77%E -4.03%K -9.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 07:24
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.99%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.99%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:55
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.99%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:55
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.99%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 08:15
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.99%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 07:45
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.10%E -2.98%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 07:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 08:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 08:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 08:10
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 08:13
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 08:13
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.21%E -3.68%K -9.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 08:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.77%E -4.03%K -9.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 08:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -7.88%E -4.75%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 08:20
DraftKings🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.43%E -3.57%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -3.99%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 07:45
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -7.43%E -3.57%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -4.55%E -2.64%K -6.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 07:45
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%EV -7.43%E -3.57%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -7.32%E -4.38%K -10.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 08:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.77%E -4.28%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.77%E -4.28%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44%EV -8.77%E -4.28%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.56%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 08:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.57%EV -9.21%E -4.52%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.43%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 08:10
ReBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.57%EV -9.21%E -4.52%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.43%EV -8.99%E -5.48%K -14.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 08:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.75%EV -10.99%E -5.50%K -10.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -10.10%E -6.23%K -16.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 08:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.25I 44.44%NM 44.03%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.97%0.9%2026-09-04 07:45
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86%1.1%2026-09-04 08:15
ProphetX2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50%1.2%2026-09-04 08:06
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64%1.5%2026-09-04 08:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64%1.5%2026-09-04 08:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64%1.5%2026-09-04 08:15
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.7%2026-09-04 08:06