Language:English
Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Jan-Lennard Struff
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)
Prediction 35.28%2.83fair odd
EV +4.44%
Edge +1.50%
Kelly +2.26%
Growth +0.101%
assuming max odds 2.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%35.14%35.29%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.742.752.9639.22%36.55%36.43%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit)
Prediction 64.72%1.55fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -4.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%64.86%64.71%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.451.451.5172.46%68.88%68.97%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local): 35.28%; Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit): 64.72%. For Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.88%EV +4.44%E +1.50%K +2.26%G +0.101% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.12%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +2.32%E +0.800%K +1.22%G +0.028% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +1.62%E +0.561%K +0.859%G +0.014% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV +0.557%E +0.196%K +0.301%G +0.002% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV +0.204%E +0.072%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -0.501%E -0.178%K -0.275%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.21%E -0.431%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.51%E -3.78%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.21%E -0.431%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.21%E -0.431%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 13:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -1.21%E -0.431%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -1.21%E -0.431%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -10.69%E -7.75%K -28.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -2.62%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 13:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.29%EV -2.62%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.71%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 18:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -2.92%E -1.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 17:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -3.57%E -2.40%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.87%E -3.31%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-01 13:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -5.51%E -3.78%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-01 14:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.45%EV -3.32%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.55%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.15%EV -3.68%E -1.35%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.85%EV -4.22%E -2.85%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 19:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%EV -4.03%E -1.48%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%EV -2.28%E -1.51%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%EV -4.03%E -1.48%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%EV -2.28%E -1.51%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.74%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.57%E -2.40%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 18:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.74%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.22%E -2.85%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.74%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.87%E -3.31%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.74%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -5.79%E -2.17%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -2.92%E -1.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -5.79%E -2.17%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.81%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.28%EV -6.15%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.72%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.28%EV -6.15%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.72%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-01 19:33 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.87%E -3.31%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.51%E -3.78%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-01 13:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-01 13:33 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.21%E -2.74%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.57%E -2.40%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 13:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.92%E -1.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.81%E -4.73%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.92%E -1.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.22%E -2.85%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.22%E -2.85%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 12:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.22%E -2.85%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 12:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.22%E -2.85%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 12:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-01 19:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.16%E -4.25%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.03%E -3.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.92%E -1.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 12:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.03%E -3.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.92%E -1.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 12:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -10.03%E -3.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.23%EV -8.10%E -5.71%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.83% | 0.3% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Novig◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 0.8% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 0.9% | 2026-09-01 19:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 0.9% | 2026-09-01 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 0.9% | 2026-09-01 19:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 19:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67% | 2.0% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42% | 2.3% | 2026-09-01 19:35 |