Language:English
Alex Michelsen v Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Prediction 72.37%1.38fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.84%72.26%72.35%73.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.321.321.3678.13%75.78%75.76%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visit)
Prediction 27.63%3.62fair odd
EV +0.572%
Edge +0.157%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%27.74%27.65%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.393.433.6432.26%29.47%29.15%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Michelsen (Local): 72.37%; Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visit): 27.63%. For Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.572%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.24%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.76%EV +0.572%E +0.157%K +0.217%G +0.001% | 2.7% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.64%E -5.15%K -22.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.37%E -5.75%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.37%E -5.75%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 18:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -1.36%E -0.381%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-06 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 18:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV -4.40%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:26 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:26 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:23 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.36%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.64%EV -5.23%E -1.52%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 18:41 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -5.51%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 14:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.61%EV -6.64%E -5.15%K -22.90%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.39%EV -5.51%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-06 13:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -6.64%E -5.15%K -22.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -7.37%E -5.75%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -2.30%E -1.70%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 12:06 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 12:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 05:58 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 12:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 13:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 00:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -11.58%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.58%E -1.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.97%E -4.12%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.58%E -1.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.97%E -4.12%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 15:36 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 18:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.95% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 27.05% | 1.5% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.44% | 2.2% | 2026-09-06 18:40 |