Idioma:Español
Alex Michelsen v Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Predicción 72.37%1.38momio equitativo
EV -1.58%
Ventaja -1.16%
Kelly -4.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.84%72.26%72.35%73.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.281.321.321.3678.13%75.78%75.76%73.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visitante)
Predicción 27.63%3.62momio equitativo
EV +0.572%
Ventaja +0.157%
Kelly +0.217%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.64
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.23%27.74%27.65%30.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.393.433.6432.26%29.47%29.15%27.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Alex Michelsen (Local): 72.37%; Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visitante): 27.63%. Para Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.62. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.64, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.572%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.24%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.76%EV +0.572%E +0.157%K +0.217%G +0.001% | 2.7% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.64%E -5.15%K -22.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.37%E -5.75%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.37%E -5.75%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 18:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -1.36%E -0.381%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-06 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 18:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV -4.40%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:26 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:26 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 07:23 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.36%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.64%EV -5.23%E -1.52%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 18:41 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -5.51%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 14:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.61%EV -6.64%E -5.15%K -22.90%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.39%EV -5.51%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-06 13:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -6.64%E -5.15%K -22.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -7.37%E -5.75%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -2.30%E -1.70%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 12:06 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 12:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 05:58 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 12:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 13:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 00:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -5.19%E -3.97%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -3.02%E -2.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -11.58%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.58%E -1.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.97%E -4.12%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.58%E -1.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.97%E -4.12%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 05:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 15:36 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 18:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.95% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 27.05% | 1.5% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.44% | 2.2% | 2026-09-06 18:40 |