Language:English
Tommy Paul v Ugo Humbert
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tommy Paul (Local)
Prediction 61.08%1.64fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.10%61.32%60.91%64.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.531.531.6168.97%65.55%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ugo Humbert (Visit)
Prediction 38.92%2.57fair odd
EV +3.13%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.90%
Growth +0.059%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.84%38.68%39.09%39.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.502.502.6542.55%40.02%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tommy Paul (Local): 61.08%; Ugo Humbert (Visit): 38.92%. For Ugo Humbert (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.13%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV +3.13%E +1.18%K +1.90%G +0.059% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 14:57 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV +2.35%E +0.895%K +1.44%G +0.034% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.38%E -5.58%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +1.19%E +0.456%K +0.742%G +0.009% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +1.19%E +0.456%K +0.742%G +0.009% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.74%EV -3.49%E -2.21%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.26%EV -0.759%E -0.298%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -8.38%E -5.58%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -0.759%E -0.298%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -8.38%E -5.58%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -0.759%E -0.298%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -1.15%E -0.452%K -0.746%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.41%EV -2.88%E -1.81%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.59%EV -1.54%E -0.608%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-20 14:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.93%E -3.85%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.54%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.38%E -5.58%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.38%E -5.58%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.38%E -5.58%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.94%EV -6.54%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.06%EV -3.09%E -1.24%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.93%E -3.85%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.48%E -1.40%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -1.66%E -1.03%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -1.66%E -1.03%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.49%E -2.21%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.93%E -3.85%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.54%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.54%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -5.82%E -2.40%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.82%E -2.40%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.32%E -3.43%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 14:58 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.93%E -3.85%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -7.77%E -5.14%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -11.43%E -7.88%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -6.60%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -6.99%E -2.92%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -6.99%E -2.92%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.38%E -3.10%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.38%E -3.10%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.54%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.38%E -3.10%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-20 14:58 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -6.54%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -7.76%E -3.28%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -6.54%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -7.76%E -3.28%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.54%E -3.64%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.32%E -3.43%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.54%E -3.64%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.32%E -3.43%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.54%E -3.64%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-20 14:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.54%E -3.64%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74% | 0.4% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74% | 0.4% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74% | 0.4% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 0.7% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95% | 1.4% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65% | 2.2% | 2026-06-20 15:00 |