Language:English
Alex de Minaur v Denis Shapovalov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 76.05%1.31fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.868%
Kelly -3.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%75.86%76.18%77.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.241.251.3084.03%80.34%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denis Shapovalov (Visit)
Prediction 23.95%4.18fair odd
EV +2.96%
Edge +0.689%
Kelly +0.898%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.38%24.14%23.82%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.903.974.3028.57%25.66%25.19%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 76.05%; Denis Shapovalov (Visit): 23.95%. For Denis Shapovalov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.96%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -5.69%E -4.59%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV +2.96%E +0.689%K +0.898%G +0.027% | 3.9% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.70%EV -3.41%E -2.69%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 23.30%EV +0.091%E +0.022%K +0.029%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-06-17 10:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -1.82%E -0.445%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-17 11:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -6.45%E -5.25%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -1.82%E -0.445%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.69%EV -5.69%E -4.59%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.31%EV -2.30%E -0.565%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -4.17%E -3.31%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -3.50%E -0.869%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -4.17%E -3.31%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -3.50%E -0.869%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:41 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:41 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.69%E -4.59%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.69%E -4.59%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 21:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.22%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.15%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 23.85%EV -4.46%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-16 21:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.17%E -3.31%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.42%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-17 10:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.42%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.69%E -4.59%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.42%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-17 11:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.69%E -4.59%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.61%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.69%E -4.59%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.61%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.45%E -5.25%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -6.61%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 11:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.61%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-17 08:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.34%EV -3.41%E -2.69%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.66%EV -7.09%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.09%EV -7.97%E -6.59%K -37.97%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.81%E -2.03%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.29%EV -4.17%E -3.31%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.71%EV -8.05%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.01%E -2.37%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-17 02:28 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.69%E -4.59%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.01%E -2.37%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -9.01%E -2.37%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-16 21:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -9.01%E -2.37%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -9.01%E -2.37%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -2.65%E -2.07%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -10.21%E -2.72%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.72%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-16 21:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.21%E -2.72%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-16 21:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.21%E -2.72%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-17 08:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.21%E -5.91%K -32.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.21%E -2.72%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-17 09:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -7.97%E -6.59%K -37.97%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -10.21%E -2.72%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-17 12:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.41%E -2.69%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -11.40%E -3.08%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-17 05:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -11.40%E -3.08%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-17 05:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -11.40%E -3.08%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-17 05:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 75.66%EV -9.49%E -7.98%K -49.97%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.34%EV -11.40%E -3.08%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.65%E -2.07%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -13.80%E -3.83%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-16 22:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.17%E -3.31%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.80%E -3.83%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-17 05:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.17%E -3.31%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.80%E -3.83%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-17 05:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -13.80%E -3.83%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.93%E -3.95%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -13.80%E -3.83%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-16 21:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.13%E -0.868%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -16.19%E -4.63%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52% | 3.3% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.55% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.45% | 4.5% | 2026-06-17 12:10 |