Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Arthur Fils
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 90.65%1.10fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +3.69%
Kelly +28.31%
Growth +1.20%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.08%89.84%90.54%95.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.061.041.1599.01%94.17%96.15%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Fils (Visit)
Prediction 9.35%10.69fair odd
EV +88.89%
Edge +4.40%
Kelly +4.63%
Growth +4.12%
assuming max odds 20.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.85%10.16%9.46%16.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.509.5910.0020.2018.18%10.43%10.00%4.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 90.65%; Arthur Fils (Visit): 9.35%. For Arthur Fils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.69. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +88.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.15%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 20.20I 4.95%NM 4.85%EV +88.89%E +4.40%K +4.63%G +4.12% | 2.0% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -7.54%E -7.39%K -376.90%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +30.91%E +2.21%K +2.38%G +0.735% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +21.56%E +1.66%K +1.80%G +0.387% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +16.89%E +1.35%K +1.47%G +0.248% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +12.21%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 3.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +12.21%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 4.5% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +12.21%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 4.5% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.37%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.86%E +0.260%K +0.286%G +0.008% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +2.86%E +0.260%K +0.286%G +0.008% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +2.86%E +0.260%K +0.286%G +0.008% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +2.86%E +0.260%K +0.286%G +0.008% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.15%EV -8.44%E -8.36%K -844.46%G +0.000% | 10.40I 9.62%NM 8.85%EV -2.75%E -0.264%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -7.54%E -7.39%K -376.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -8.83%E -0.905%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -8.83%E -0.905%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.20%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -11.17%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.17%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -15.84%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -20.52%E -2.41%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.01%EV +3.34%E +2.93%K +23.86%G +0.797% | 7.01I 14.27%NM 13.99%EV -34.45%E -4.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -40.15%E -6.27%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 17:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.09%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 6.39I 15.65%NM 14.91%EV -40.25%E -6.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-21 17:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -41.09%E -6.52%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 18:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV +2.43%E +2.15%K +18.72%G +0.455% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -41.56%E -6.65%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -41.56%E -6.65%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 18:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -41.56%E -6.65%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV +2.43%E +2.15%K +18.72%G +0.455% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -43.89%E -7.32%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -43.89%E -7.32%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -43.89%E -7.32%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-21 18:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -0.286%E -0.260%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -43.89%E -7.32%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-21 17:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -44.83%E -7.60%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -45.76%E -7.89%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -45.76%E -7.89%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 18:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV +4.25%E +3.69%K +28.31%G +1.20% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -46.14%E -8.01%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:13 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV +4.25%E +3.69%K +28.31%G +1.20% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -46.14%E -8.01%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -48.57%E -8.83%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-21 17:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.19% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.81% | 1.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |