La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Carlos Alcaraz v Arthur Fils
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Predicción 90.65%1.10momio equitativo
EV +4.25%
Ventaja +3.69%
Kelly +28.31%
Crecimiento +1.20%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.15
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
83.08%89.84%90.54%95.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.011.061.041.1599.01%94.17%96.15%86.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Arthur Fils (Visitante)
Predicción 9.35%10.69momio equitativo
EV +88.89%
Ventaja +4.40%
Kelly +4.63%
Crecimiento +4.12%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 20.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
4.85%10.16%9.46%16.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.509.5910.0020.2018.18%10.43%10.00%4.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.15%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 20.20I 4.95%NM 4.85%EV +88.89%E +4.40%K +4.63%G +4.12% | 2.0% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Betway | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -7.54%E -7.39%K -376.90%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +30.91%E +2.21%K +2.38%G +0.735% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +21.56%E +1.66%K +1.80%G +0.387% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +16.89%E +1.35%K +1.47%G +0.248% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +12.21%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 3.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Coral | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +12.21%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 4.5% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +12.21%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 4.5% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Casumo | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Unibet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| betPARX | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +7.54%E +0.655%K +0.718%G +0.054% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.37%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.86%E +0.260%K +0.286%G +0.008% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| 888sport | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +2.86%E +0.260%K +0.286%G +0.008% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +2.86%E +0.260%K +0.286%G +0.008% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +2.86%E +0.260%K +0.286%G +0.008% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| TABtouch | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Grosvenor | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| BetRivers | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| BetMGM | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -1.81%E -0.173%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Fliff | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.15%EV -8.44%E -8.36%K -844.46%G +0.000% | 10.40I 9.62%NM 8.85%EV -2.75%E -0.264%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| Bovada | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| theScore Bet | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| TAB | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -7.54%E -7.39%K -376.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -6.49%E -0.649%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Betsson | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -8.83%E -0.905%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| NordicBet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -8.83%E -0.905%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| FanDuel | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.20%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -11.17%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.73%E -5.50%K -143.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.17%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-21 18:19 |
| Fanatics | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -15.84%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.05%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -20.52%E -2.41%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.01%EV +3.34%E +2.93%K +23.86%G +0.797% | 7.01I 14.27%NM 13.99%EV -34.45%E -4.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -40.15%E -6.27%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 17:59 |
| GTbets | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.09%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 6.39I 15.65%NM 14.91%EV -40.25%E -6.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-21 17:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -41.09%E -6.52%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 18:14 |
| Bally Bet | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV +2.43%E +2.15%K +18.72%G +0.455% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -41.56%E -6.65%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| BetUS | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -41.56%E -6.65%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 18:09 |
| PlayUp | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -41.56%E -6.65%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Bet Right | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV +2.43%E +2.15%K +18.72%G +0.455% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -43.89%E -7.32%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -43.89%E -7.32%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -43.89%E -7.32%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-21 18:14 |
| Everygame | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -0.286%E -0.260%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -43.89%E -7.32%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-21 17:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -44.83%E -7.60%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Neds | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -45.76%E -7.89%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV +0.620%E +0.559%K +5.64%G +0.035% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -45.76%E -7.89%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 18:09 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV +4.25%E +3.69%K +28.31%G +1.20% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -46.14%E -8.01%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:13 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV +4.25%E +3.69%K +28.31%G +1.20% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -46.14%E -8.01%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 18:14 |
| Bet Victor | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV +1.53%E +1.36%K +12.72%G +0.194% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -48.57%E -8.83%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-21 17:58 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (2)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.19% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.81% | 1.2% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 18:20 |