Language:English
Denis Shapovalov v Alex Molcan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Denis Shapovalov (Local)
Prediction 56.63%1.77fair odd
EV +1.93%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +2.41%
Growth +0.047%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%56.76%56.26%59.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.671.671.8066.23%60.04%59.88%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Molcan (Visit)
Prediction 43.37%2.31fair odd
EV +1.93%
Edge +0.819%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.37%43.24%43.74%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.152.3550.00%46.32%46.51%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denis Shapovalov (Local): 56.63%; Alex Molcan (Visit): 43.37%. For Denis Shapovalov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV +1.93%E +1.07%K +2.41%G +0.047% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -11.52%E -5.65%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-17 15:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +1.93%E +1.07%K +2.41%G +0.047% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -13.25%E -6.63%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 15:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -0.902%E -0.515%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -9.79%E -4.70%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 15:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -1.47%E -0.844%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -8.48%E -4.02%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -1.47%E -0.844%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -11.09%E -5.41%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-17 15:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -1.47%E -0.844%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -11.52%E -5.65%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -2.03%E -1.18%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -13.25%E -6.63%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 15:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -2.60%E -1.51%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-17 15:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.17%E -1.85%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.17%E -1.85%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.17%E -1.85%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.73%E -2.20%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.73%E -2.20%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.05%E -3.80%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.73%E -2.20%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.05%E -3.80%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-17 15:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.73%E -2.20%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.73%E -2.20%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.73%E -2.20%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.73%E -2.20%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.73%E -2.20%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.09%E -5.41%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.73%E -2.20%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.09%E -5.41%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -4.30%E -2.54%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -2.85%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-17 15:37 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -4.30%E -2.54%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -2.85%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-17 15:37 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.30%E -2.54%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -4.30%E -2.54%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -6.32%E -2.92%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-17 15:38 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.30%E -2.54%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.87%E -2.90%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.88%E -2.71%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.87%E -2.90%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.88%E -2.71%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.87%E -2.90%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.88%E -2.71%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.87%E -2.90%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.88%E -2.71%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.83%EV -7.18%E -3.36%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.83%EV -7.18%E -3.36%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 15:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV -6.00%E -3.61%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.05%E -3.80%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV -6.00%E -3.61%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.05%E -3.80%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -6.56%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -0.243%E -0.106%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.56%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 15:32 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.56%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -6.56%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -8.05%E -3.80%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 15:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.56%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.56%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.56%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -7.13%E -4.35%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -1.11%E -0.487%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.13%E -4.35%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.13%E -4.35%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -7.13%E -4.35%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.26%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.26%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.26%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-17 15:37 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.83%E -5.48%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.83%E -5.48%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -9.40%E -5.87%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +1.93%E +0.819%K +1.43%G +0.027% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -9.40%E -5.87%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -9.96%E -6.27%K -16.89%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -0.243%E -0.106%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -10.53%E -6.66%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -11.09%E -7.07%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -11.66%E -7.48%K -20.82%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -11.66%E -7.48%K -20.82%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -12.23%E -7.89%K -22.23%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%EV -1.11%E -0.487%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.63%EV -14.49%E -9.60%K -28.42%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.37%EV -3.28%E -1.47%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 0.5% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.50% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.50% | 3.0% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25% | 3.9% | 2026-04-17 15:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75% | 4.0% | 2026-04-17 15:39 |