Language:English
Alex Molcan v Ben Shelton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Molcan (Local)
Prediction 30.02%3.33fair odd
EV +3.85%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.060%
assuming max odds 3.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%29.93%30.23%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.153.153.4634.48%31.70%31.75%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ben Shelton (Visit)
Prediction 69.98%1.43fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -5.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.76%70.07%69.77%71.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.351.4076.92%74.04%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Molcan (Local): 30.02%; Ben Shelton (Visit): 69.98%. For Alex Molcan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.85%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 28.22%EV +3.85%E +1.11%K +1.57%G +0.060% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.78%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-18 12:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +2.05%E +0.604%K +0.855%G +0.018% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.92%E -5.20%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-18 12:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV +0.552%E +0.165%K +0.235%G +0.001% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-18 06:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV +0.552%E +0.165%K +0.235%G +0.001% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-18 12:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.949%E -0.287%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.92%E -5.20%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-18 12:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.45%E -0.754%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.45%E -0.754%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.45%E -0.754%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.92%E -5.20%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 12:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.45%E -0.754%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -8.32%E -6.35%K -26.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 12:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 30.37%EV -3.65%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.63%EV -2.02%E -1.44%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 05:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.02%E -6.94%K -30.07%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-18 09:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.02%E -6.94%K -30.07%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-18 12:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -4.55%E -1.43%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 10:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -4.85%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -3.42%E -2.48%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-18 11:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.12%E -3.01%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-18 12:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 09:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 12:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.92%E -5.20%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 06:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.92%E -5.20%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.92%E -5.20%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -6.35%E -2.04%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.04%EV -6.35%E -2.04%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.96%EV -6.22%E -4.64%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-18 12:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.42%E -2.48%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-18 12:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 07:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 06:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 09:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 09:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 09:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -6.22%E -4.64%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 09:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -7.62%E -5.77%K -23.81%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-18 12:01 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -8.45%E -2.77%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 12:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.02%E -1.44%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 04:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.82%E -3.54%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 11:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-18 06:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-18 06:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-18 06:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.52%E -4.09%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-18 06:01 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.92%E -5.20%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-18 11:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.92%E -5.20%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-18 12:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -12.95%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.42%E -2.48%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-17 20:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-04-18 12:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-04-18 12:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-04-18 12:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-04-18 12:45 |
| Novig◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 0.8% | 2026-04-18 12:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73% | 2.5% | 2026-04-18 12:50 |