Language:English
Jiri Lehecka v Emilio Nava
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jiri Lehecka (Local)
Prediction 73.89%1.35fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -10.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.90%74.18%73.92%77.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.271.271.3183.33%78.61%78.74%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Emilio Nava (Visit)
Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV +8.35%
Edge +2.01%
Kelly +2.65%
Growth +0.221%
assuming max odds 4.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.43%25.82%26.08%28.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.643.604.1530.30%27.50%27.78%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jiri Lehecka (Local): 73.89%; Emilio Nava (Visit): 26.11%. For Emilio Nava (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.35%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -8.37%E -6.75%K -34.89%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV +8.35%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.221% | 4.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -11.33%E -9.44%K -56.64%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV +8.35%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.221% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.44%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.56%EV +7.56%E +1.84%K +2.42%G +0.183% | 3.0% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -9.85%E -8.07%K -44.78%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV +7.04%E +1.72%K +2.27%G +0.160% | 6.4% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -6.90%E -5.47%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV +5.21%E +1.29%K +1.72%G +0.090% | 4.2% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -6.90%E -5.47%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV +5.21%E +1.29%K +1.72%G +0.090% | 4.2% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -9.85%E -8.07%K -44.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +4.43%E +1.11%K +1.48%G +0.065% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -6.90%E -5.47%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.23%EV +2.86%E +0.727%K +0.974%G +0.028% | 4.7% | 2026-04-06 11:02 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -0.792%E -0.208%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -0.792%E -0.208%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.10%E -0.559%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-06 11:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.90%E -5.47%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.10%E -0.559%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-06 11:03 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.10%E -0.559%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.10%E -0.559%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.10%E -0.559%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.10%E -0.559%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.40%E -0.920%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.71%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-06 09:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.42%E -4.23%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -4.71%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.71%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-06 09:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.33%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.67%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.20%E -2.44%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 19:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.42%E -4.23%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.90%E -5.47%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.90%E -5.47%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.90%E -5.47%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-06 09:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.03%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.10%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.63%E -6.11%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.94%E -3.03%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -9.93%E -2.88%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.42%E -4.23%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -9.93%E -2.88%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.42%E -4.23%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -9.93%E -2.88%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.42%E -4.23%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -9.93%E -2.88%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -9.93%E -2.88%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -6.90%E -5.47%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -13.85%E -4.20%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.69%EV -8.37%E -6.75%K -34.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -13.85%E -4.20%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 0.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 0.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 0.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.32% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.68% | 1.8% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66% | 2.6% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |