A Escola das Odds

Daniel Altmaier v Tomas Machac

Início: 2026-04-06 13:30 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

58 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Daniel Altmaier (Local)

Previsão 37.65%2.66odd justa
EV +1.27%
Vantagem +0.473%
Kelly +0.753%
Crescimento +0.010%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.69

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
35.18%37.78%37.67%39.90%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.302.462.452.6943.48%40.61%40.82%37.17%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Tomas Machac (Visitante)

Previsão 62.35%1.60odd justa
EV -1.48%
Vantagem -0.939%
Kelly -2.56%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.58

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
60.10%62.22%62.33%64.82%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.451.531.541.5868.97%65.23%65.15%63.29%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (58 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
DraftKings2.69I 37.17%NM 35.18%EV +1.27%E +0.473%K +0.753%G +0.010%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.82%EV -8.97%E -6.14%K -19.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 13:25
1xBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.36%E -0.520%K -0.841%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.47%E -4.31%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 13:15
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.12%E -0.814%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 13:25
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.12%E -0.814%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.22%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-06 13:20
Betsson2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.12%E -0.814%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.47%E -4.31%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 13:25
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.12%E -0.814%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.47%E -4.31%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 13:19
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.12%E -0.814%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.47%E -4.31%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 13:19
PointsBet (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -2.12%E -0.814%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-06 13:25
LowVig.ag2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -3.25%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -2.73%E -1.75%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 13:25
Betclic (FR)2.57I 38.91%NM 37.32%EV -3.25%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.68%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-06 13:18
Pinnacle2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -3.62%E -1.41%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -2.73%E -1.75%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-06 13:20
NordicBet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.00%E -1.57%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.47%E -4.31%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 13:20
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.00%E -1.57%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.47%E -4.31%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 13:20
BetOnline.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -4.75%E -1.88%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -2.73%E -1.75%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-06 13:19
GTbets2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -5.50%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -3.98%E -2.58%K -7.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 13:05
Bovada2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.73%E -1.75%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-06 12:56
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 13:25
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 13:15
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 13:19
ReBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 13:01
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.22%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-06 13:25
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.22%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-06 13:25
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.59%E -6.61%K -21.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 13:25
NetBet (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 37.47%EV -7.01%E -2.84%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.53%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-06 13:25
Hard Rock Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -2.73%E -1.75%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Bally Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:00
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:00
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:00
FanDuel2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -8.89%E -3.67%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -1.48%E -0.939%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 13:00
SportsBet2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -9.27%E -3.85%K -6.57%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -2.11%E -1.34%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 13:00
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.65%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.11%E -1.34%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 13:00
BetMGM2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.65%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.73%E -1.75%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-06 13:00
TABtouch2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -9.65%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -3.98%E -2.58%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 13:25
Grosvenor2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.65%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 13:25
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.65%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 13:00
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.65%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 13:00
Fliff2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.65%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 13:19
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.65%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -5.22%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 13:20
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -10.40%E -4.37%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.11%E -1.34%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 13:00
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -10.40%E -4.37%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.11%E -1.34%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 13:00
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -10.40%E -4.37%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.11%E -1.34%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 13:00
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -10.40%E -4.37%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.11%E -1.34%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 13:00
LeoVegas2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -10.40%E -4.37%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -5.85%E -3.87%K -11.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 13:25
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -10.40%E -4.37%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -6.47%E -4.31%K -12.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-06 13:19
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -10.77%E -4.55%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 13:00
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -10.77%E -4.55%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 13:00
Caesars2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -11.53%E -4.91%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -2.73%E -1.75%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 13:24
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.53%E -4.91%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 13:00
Neds2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.53%E -4.91%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 13:00
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -11.53%E -4.91%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -5.22%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -11.53%E -4.91%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -6.47%E -4.31%K -12.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-06 13:25
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.41%E -5.83%K -10.32%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.85%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-06 13:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-04-06 13:25
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-04-06 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-04-06 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-04-06 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-04-06 13:20
ProphetX2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-04-06 13:20
Novig2.66I 37.59%NM 36.67%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.33%2.5%2026-04-06 13:20