Language:English
Damir Dzumhur v Fabian Marozsan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Damir Dzumhur (Local)
Prediction 30.66%3.26fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.361%
Kelly +0.517%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%30.80%30.26%34.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.972.903.3037.04%33.69%34.48%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fabian Marozsan (Visit)
Prediction 69.34%1.44fair odd
EV -0.155%
Edge -0.108%
Kelly -0.353%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.69%69.20%69.74%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.391.401.4478.13%72.17%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Damir Dzumhur (Local): 30.66%; Fabian Marozsan (Visit): 69.34%. For Damir Dzumhur (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.19%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 11:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 11:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 11:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 11:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.344%E -0.106%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -0.344%E -0.106%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.40%E -4.74%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -0.344%E -0.106%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -0.344%E -0.106%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -8.48%E -6.42%K -26.49%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.88%E -0.586%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.88%E -0.586%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.01%E -3.66%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 11:08 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%EV -9.17%E -7.00%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -5.86%E -1.91%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.32%E -3.13%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -6.48%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -6.48%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -9.86%E -7.59%K -32.88%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-07 11:13 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.62%E -2.61%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 11:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.20%EV -0.155%E -0.108%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -3.62%E -2.61%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -7.09%E -5.29%K -20.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-07 11:08 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.74%EV -11.25%E -8.79%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 11:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 11:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -11.69%E -4.06%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-07 11:06 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -12.00%E -4.18%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -12.00%E -4.18%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -0.155%E -0.108%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -15.68%E -5.70%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -15.68%E -5.70%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -17.21%E -6.37%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -2.24%E -1.59%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51% | 2.8% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47% | 7.5% | 2026-04-07 11:15 |