A Escola das Odds

Damir Dzumhur v Fabian Marozsan

Início: 2026-04-07 11:20 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Damir Dzumhur (Local)

Previsão 30.66%3.26odd justa
EV +1.19%
Vantagem +0.361%
Kelly +0.517%
Crescimento +0.006%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.73%30.80%30.26%34.31%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.702.972.903.3037.04%33.69%34.48%30.30%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Fabian Marozsan (Visitante)

Previsão 69.34%1.44odd justa
EV -0.155%
Vantagem -0.108%
Kelly -0.353%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.44

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.69%69.20%69.74%71.27%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.281.391.401.4478.13%72.17%71.43%69.44%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-07 11:14
888sport3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-07 11:14
Unibet (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-07 11:15
888sport (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-07 11:14
Mr Green (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.361%K +0.517%G +0.006%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-07 11:14
FanDuel3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.344%E -0.106%K -0.153%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-07 11:15
SportsBet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -0.344%E -0.106%K -0.153%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.40%E -4.74%K -18.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-07 11:15
theScore Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -0.344%E -0.106%K -0.153%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-07 11:15
Winamax (DE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -0.344%E -0.106%K -0.153%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -8.48%E -6.42%K -26.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-07 11:15
PointsBet (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.88%E -0.586%K -0.853%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-07 11:15
Paddy Power3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.88%E -0.586%K -0.853%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-07 11:15
ReBet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.01%E -3.66%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-07 11:08
Fanatics3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%EV -9.17%E -7.00%K -29.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-07 11:15
GTbets3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -5.86%E -1.91%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.32%E -3.13%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 11:15
Coolbet3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -6.48%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-07 11:15
Betclic (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -6.48%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -9.86%E -7.59%K -32.88%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-07 11:13
Bet Right3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.62%E -2.61%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-07 11:15
Caesars3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-07 11:14
Pinnacle2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 67.20%EV -0.155%E -0.108%K -0.353%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-07 11:15
Betr (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -3.62%E -2.61%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-07 11:15
Unibet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -7.09%E -5.29%K -20.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-07 11:08
Winamax (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 69.74%EV -11.25%E -8.79%K -40.18%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-07 11:15
NordicBet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-07 11:14
Betsson2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-07 11:14
BetMGM2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-07 11:15
Bet Victor2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -11.69%E -4.06%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-07 11:06
Coral2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -12.00%E -4.18%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-07 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -12.00%E -4.18%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-07 11:15
Unibet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -0.155%E -0.108%K -0.353%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-07 11:15
Betway2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
LeoVegas2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
Unibet (NL)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
Grosvenor2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
TABtouch2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
Unibet (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
Casumo2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
Svenska Spel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
betPARX2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
ATG (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
Bally Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -0.849%E -0.594%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 11:15
PlayUp2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-07 11:15
Neds2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 11:15
Virgin Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -15.68%E -5.70%K -8.96%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-07 11:15
LiveScore Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -15.68%E -5.70%K -8.96%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-07 11:15
PMU (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -17.21%E -6.37%K -10.12%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -2.24%E -1.59%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-07 11:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51%2.8%2026-04-07 11:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%4.2%2026-04-07 11:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%4.2%2026-04-07 11:15
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%7.5%2026-04-07 11:15