Language:English
Marin Cilic v Alexei Popyrin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marin Cilic (Local)
Prediction 57.86%1.73fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%58.00%57.69%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.611.6963.69%61.64%62.11%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexei Popyrin (Visit)
Prediction 42.14%2.37fair odd
EV +0.290%
Edge +0.122%
Kelly +0.210%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%42.00%42.31%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.282.3846.51%43.87%43.86%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marin Cilic (Local): 57.86%; Alexei Popyrin (Visit): 42.14%. For Alexei Popyrin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.290%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -9.16%E -5.83%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +0.290%E +0.122%K +0.210%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -9.16%E -5.83%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +0.290%E +0.122%K +0.210%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -9.16%E -5.83%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +0.290%E +0.122%K +0.210%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -9.16%E -5.83%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +0.290%E +0.122%K +0.210%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -6.26%E -3.87%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.24%E -0.965%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -2.66%E -1.15%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -2.66%E -1.15%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -2.79%E -1.66%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -3.08%E -1.34%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.26%E -3.87%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.08%E -1.34%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.26%E -3.87%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.08%E -1.34%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.08%E -1.34%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-19 19:38 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -2.79%E -1.66%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.32%EV -3.50%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -2.79%E -1.66%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -3.92%E -1.72%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -2.79%E -1.66%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -3.92%E -1.72%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -3.92%E -1.72%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -8.58%E -5.43%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -3.92%E -1.72%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -4.53%E -2.74%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -4.77%E -2.11%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.37%E -2.02%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-19 19:38 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.37%E -2.02%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.53%E -2.74%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.53%E -2.74%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.53%E -2.74%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-19 19:38 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.53%E -2.74%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.53%E -2.74%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.53%E -2.74%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.53%E -2.74%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -8.00%E -5.03%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.16%E -5.83%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.16%E -5.83%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.16%E -5.83%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.19%E -2.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -3.37%E -2.02%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -6.03%E -2.70%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.53%E -2.74%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.30%E -3.32%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.26%E -3.87%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.30%E -3.32%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.26%E -3.87%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.30%E -3.32%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-19 19:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.30%E -3.32%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-19 19:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.42%E -4.64%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.30%E -3.32%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-19 19:28 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -2.21%E -1.31%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -9.40%E -4.37%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.26%E -3.87%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.40%E -4.37%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36% | 0.9% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86% | 2.3% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86% | 2.3% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |