Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 41.55%2.41fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.826%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.57%41.54%41.60%46.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.262.272.3648.31%44.21%44.05%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 58.45%1.71fair odd
EV +3.46%
Edge +1.96%
Kelly +4.50%
Growth +0.156%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.91%58.46%58.40%59.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.621.7763.69%61.64%61.73%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 41.55%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 58.45%. For Jakub Mensik (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.71. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -14.00%E -6.76%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV +3.46%E +1.96%K +4.50%G +0.156% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -1.21%E -0.719%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -7.77%E -3.50%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -2.97%E -1.79%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-23 18:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.55%E -2.15%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-23 18:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.55%E -2.15%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -1.95%E -0.826%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -4.14%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-23 18:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -1.95%E -0.826%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -4.14%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-23 18:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -2.36%E -1.01%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -4.14%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -5.27%E -2.31%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.14%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 18:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.14%E -2.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-23 18:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.27%E -2.31%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.90%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.27%E -2.31%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.90%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.27%E -2.31%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.90%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.27%E -2.31%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.90%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.27%E -2.31%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.90%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.27%E -2.31%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.90%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.27%E -2.31%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.72%E -2.90%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.69%E -2.51%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.72%E -2.90%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.72%E -2.90%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-23 18:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -2.78%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.03%E -1.74%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 18:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.03%E -1.74%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.03%E -1.74%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 18:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:32 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.65%EV -5.69%E -2.51%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 18:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 18:33 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -12.75%E -6.07%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -5.31%E -3.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.61%E -1.56%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-23 18:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-23 18:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-23 18:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.35%E -3.30%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.35%E -3.30%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.35%E -3.30%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.89%E -3.66%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-23 18:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.48%E -4.05%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.48%E -4.05%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.52%E -2.90%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.48%E -4.05%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-23 18:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.48%E -4.05%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.48%E -4.05%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.48%E -4.05%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.06%E -4.44%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.44%E -1.93%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.23%E -5.24%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-23 18:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.23%E -5.24%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-23 18:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.60%E -3.91%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.23%E -5.24%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-23 18:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 0.5% | 2026-03-23 18:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 0.6% | 2026-03-23 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-03-23 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-03-23 18:44 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28% | 0.9% | 2026-03-23 18:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06% | 1.9% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Novig◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.21% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.79% | 3.7% | 2026-03-23 18:41 |