Language:English
Fabian Marozsan v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fabian Marozsan (Local)
Prediction 30.34%3.30fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.484%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.04%30.36%30.36%31.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.103.2633.33%32.15%32.26%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 69.66%1.44fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -6.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.68%69.64%69.64%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.351.361.4075.76%73.80%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fabian Marozsan (Local): 30.34%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 69.66%. For Fabian Marozsan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.26, with an expected value of -1.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.74%EV -1.09%E -0.335%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.26%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-19 19:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.40%E -0.430%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.40%E -0.430%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.40%E -0.430%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 19:53 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -3.22%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV -3.52%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 19:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 19:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -5.34%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -5.34%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.57%E -3.33%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:52 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 19:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -6.65%E -4.97%K -19.57%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-19 19:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -6.86%E -2.23%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -2.48%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -6.86%E -2.23%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -2.48%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-19 19:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%EV -8.05%E -6.10%K -25.15%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-19 19:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.87% | 1.6% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.93% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.07% | 2.0% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73% | 2.5% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |