Language:English
Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Sebastian Korda
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)
Prediction 9.28%10.77fair odd
EV +29.93%
Edge +2.14%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.689%
assuming max odds 14.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.79%10.07%9.05%15.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.009.189.5014.0016.67%10.89%10.53%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sebastian Korda (Visit)
Prediction 90.72%1.10fair odd
EV +2.51%
Edge +2.22%
Kelly +19.33%
Growth +0.486%
assuming max odds 1.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.27%89.93%90.95%93.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.061.051.1398.04%93.95%95.24%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local): 9.28%; Sebastian Korda (Visit): 90.72%. For Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.77. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +29.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +29.93%E +2.14%K +2.30%G +0.689% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -7.47%E -7.32%K -373.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -7.47%E -7.32%K -373.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -7.47%E -7.32%K -373.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -7.47%E -7.32%K -373.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.40I 8.77%NM 8.51%EV +5.80%E +0.509%K +0.558%G +0.032% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.49%EV -3.84%E -3.62%K -63.96%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.84%E -3.62%K -63.96%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -2.55%E -0.243%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -2.55%E -0.243%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -2.55%E -0.243%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -2.55%E -0.243%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.83%E -1.25%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.83%E -1.25%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.83%E -1.25%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.17%EV -15.54%E -1.71%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.83%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 00:23 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -21.11%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -21.11%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.01I 14.27%NM 13.88%EV -34.94%E -4.98%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.12%EV +2.51%E +2.22%K +19.33%G +0.486% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 00:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -35.03%E -5.00%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -2.02%E -1.87%K -25.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 00:23 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -37.35%E -5.53%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 00:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -37.82%E -5.64%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.90%EV -0.209%E -0.190%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 00:13 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -38.84%E -5.89%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 00:11 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -38.84%E -5.89%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 00:11 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.54I 15.29%NM 14.62%EV -39.30%E -6.01%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.38%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 00:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -39.67%E -6.10%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 00:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -39.67%E -6.10%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.80%EV -40.14%E -6.22%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.20%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -40.60%E -6.34%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.98%EV -41.53%E -6.59%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -41.99%E -6.72%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 00:03 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -41.99%E -6.72%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 6.18I 16.18%NM 15.46%EV -42.64%E -6.90%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.54%EV +2.51%E +2.22%K +19.33%G +0.486% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -44.31%E -7.39%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -44.31%E -7.39%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:13 |
| Everygame🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -44.31%E -7.39%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -0.209%E -0.190%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -44.31%E -7.39%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -2.02%E -1.87%K -25.29%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.87% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 94.13% | 0.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.40% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.16% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.84% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81% | 1.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Novig◎ | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.67% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.33% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |