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Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Sebastian Korda
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)
Predicción 9.28%10.77momio equitativo
EV +29.93%
Ventaja +2.14%
Kelly +2.30%
Crecimiento +0.689%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 14.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.79%10.07%9.05%15.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.009.189.5014.0016.67%10.89%10.53%7.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Sebastian Korda (Visitante)
Predicción 90.72%1.10momio equitativo
EV +2.51%
Ventaja +2.22%
Kelly +19.33%
Crecimiento +0.486%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.13
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
84.27%89.93%90.95%93.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.021.061.051.1398.04%93.95%95.24%88.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local): 9.28%; Sebastian Korda (Visitante): 90.72%. Para Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 10.77. 14 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 14.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +29.93%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +29.93%E +2.14%K +2.30%G +0.689% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -7.47%E -7.32%K -373.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -7.47%E -7.32%K -373.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -7.47%E -7.32%K -373.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +20.65%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.355% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -7.47%E -7.32%K -373.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.40I 8.77%NM 8.51%EV +5.80%E +0.509%K +0.558%G +0.032% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.49%EV -3.84%E -3.62%K -63.96%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.84%E -3.62%K -63.96%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +2.09%E +0.190%K +0.209%G +0.004% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -2.55%E -0.243%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -2.55%E -0.243%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -2.55%E -0.243%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -2.55%E -0.243%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -7.19%E -0.719%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.83%E -1.25%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.83%E -1.25%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.83%E -1.25%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.17%EV -15.54%E -1.71%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.83%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 00:23 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.74%E -4.52%K -94.90%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -16.47%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -21.11%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -5.65%E -5.43%K -141.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -21.11%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -6.56%E -6.37%K -218.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.01I 14.27%NM 13.88%EV -34.94%E -4.98%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.12%EV +2.51%E +2.22%K +19.33%G +0.486% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 00:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -35.03%E -5.00%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -2.02%E -1.87%K -25.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 00:23 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -37.35%E -5.53%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 00:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -37.82%E -5.64%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.90%EV -0.209%E -0.190%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 00:13 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -38.84%E -5.89%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 00:11 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -38.84%E -5.89%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 00:11 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.54I 15.29%NM 14.62%EV -39.30%E -6.01%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.38%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 00:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -39.67%E -6.10%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 00:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -39.67%E -6.10%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.80%EV -40.14%E -6.22%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.20%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -40.60%E -6.34%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.98%EV -41.53%E -6.59%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -41.99%E -6.72%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 00:03 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -41.99%E -6.72%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV +0.698%E +0.629%K +6.35%G +0.044% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 6.18I 16.18%NM 15.46%EV -42.64%E -6.90%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.54%EV +2.51%E +2.22%K +19.33%G +0.486% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -44.31%E -7.39%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -44.31%E -7.39%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV +1.61%E +1.43%K +13.38%G +0.215% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:13 |
| Everygame🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -44.31%E -7.39%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -0.209%E -0.190%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -44.31%E -7.39%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -2.02%E -1.87%K -25.29%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.87% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 94.13% | 0.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.40% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.16% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.84% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81% | 1.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Novig◎ | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.67% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.33% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |