Language:English
Alex Michelsen v Jannik Sinner
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Prediction 7.68%13.02fair odd
EV +30.57%
Edge +1.80%
Kelly +1.91%
Growth +0.584%
assuming max odds 17.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.66%7.88%7.63%10.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5012.0711.5017.0011.76%8.28%8.70%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jannik Sinner (Visit)
Prediction 92.32%1.08fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -35.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.10%92.12%92.37%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.041.0699.01%96.56%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Michelsen (Local): 7.68%; Jannik Sinner (Visit): 92.32%. For Alex Michelsen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.02. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +30.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +30.57%E +1.80%K +1.91%G +0.584% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -5.83%E -5.72%K -291.70%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-24 20:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +22.89%E +1.43%K +1.53%G +0.349% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -5.83%E -5.72%K -291.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-24 17:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +15.21%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.165% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-24 20:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +15.21%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.165% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.83%E -5.72%K -291.70%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 19:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +15.21%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.165% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.83%E -5.72%K -291.70%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 19:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +15.21%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.165% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.76%E -6.69%K -675.73%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-24 20:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 14.80I 6.76%NM 6.62%EV +13.67%E +0.924%K +0.991%G +0.135% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.38%EV -3.06%E -2.92%K -61.29%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-03-24 14:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +3.69%E +0.273%K +0.295%G +0.011% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-24 20:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -0.154%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-24 20:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -0.154%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-24 20:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -0.154%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -0.154%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -0.154%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -0.154%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 17:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -0.154%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -0.154%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -6.76%E -6.69%K -675.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-24 19:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 12.98I 7.70%NM 7.35%EV -0.307%E -0.024%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.65%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -3.53%E -0.281%K -0.306%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-24 19:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -3.53%E -0.281%K -0.306%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-24 19:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -3.99%E -0.320%K -0.347%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-24 20:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -7.83%E -0.653%K -0.712%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-24 20:15 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -7.83%E -0.653%K -0.712%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-24 20:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 11.75I 8.51%NM 8.06%EV -9.75%E -0.830%K -0.907%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.94%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-24 20:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 11.75I 8.51%NM 8.06%EV -9.75%E -0.830%K -0.907%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.94%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-24 17:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 11.70I 8.55%NM 8.16%EV -10.14%E -0.867%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.84%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 20:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -11.67%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 20:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -13.59%E -1.21%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-24 16:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -15.51%E -1.41%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-24 20:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -15.51%E -1.41%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-24 19:43 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -23.20%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -2.14%E -2.02%K -35.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-24 07:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -23.20%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.06%E -2.92%K -61.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-24 07:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -23.20%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.06%E -2.92%K -61.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-24 07:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -23.20%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.06%E -2.92%K -61.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-24 11:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -23.20%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.06%E -2.92%K -61.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-24 11:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -23.20%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-24 08:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -23.20%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-24 13:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -23.20%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-24 19:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -23.20%E -2.32%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -4.91%E -4.77%K -163.70%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-24 13:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -34.72%E -4.08%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -3.99%E -3.83%K -99.69%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-24 20:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 95.01% | 0.2% | 2026-03-24 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 95.01% | 0.2% | 2026-03-24 20:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 95.01% | 0.2% | 2026-03-24 20:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28% | 0.9% | 2026-03-24 20:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 1.0% | 2026-03-24 20:55 |
| Novig◎ | 18.18I 5.50%NM 5.41% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 94.59% | 1.7% | 2026-03-24 20:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.90% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.10% | 2.1% | 2026-03-24 20:55 |