Language:English
Alex Michelsen v Cameron Norrie
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Prediction 67.59%1.48fair odd
EV +13.55%
Edge +8.06%
Kelly +19.92%
Growth +2.70%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.14%66.26%68.39%70.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.441.401.6875.19%69.32%71.43%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cameron Norrie (Visit)
Prediction 32.41%3.09fair odd
EV +3.72%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.69%
Growth +0.063%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.36%33.74%31.61%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.772.953.2046.51%36.09%33.90%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Michelsen (Local): 67.59%; Cameron Norrie (Visit): 32.41%. For Alex Michelsen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.48. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.55%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV +13.55%E +8.06%K +19.92%G +2.70% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -28.04%E -12.63%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 19:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV +13.55%E +8.06%K +19.92%G +2.70% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -30.31%E -14.10%K -26.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 19:58 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV +12.19%E +7.35%K +18.48%G +2.25% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -24.80%E -10.69%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-21 19:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV +12.19%E +7.35%K +18.48%G +2.25% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -24.80%E -10.69%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-21 19:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV +11.52%E +6.98%K +17.72%G +2.04% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -27.07%E -12.03%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 19:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV +10.17%E +6.24%K +16.14%G +1.64% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -26.10%E -11.45%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 19:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV +9.49%E +5.86%K +15.31%G +1.45% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -24.80%E -10.69%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 19:46 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +9.49%E +5.86%K +15.31%G +1.45% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -25.45%E -11.07%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 19:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV +8.82%E +5.48%K +14.45%G +1.27% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -27.07%E -12.03%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 19:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV +8.14%E +5.09%K +13.57%G +1.10% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -24.48%E -10.51%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 19:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV +5.44%E +3.48%K +9.71%G +0.528% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -24.80%E -10.69%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 19:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV +1.38%E +0.921%K +2.76%G +0.038% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -14.11%E -5.32%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +1.38%E +0.921%K +2.76%G +0.038% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -18.97%E -7.59%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 20:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -0.647%E -0.440%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -15.73%E -6.05%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:03 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -0.647%E -0.440%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -15.73%E -6.05%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.00%E -1.38%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.86%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -2.00%E -1.38%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -14.11%E -5.32%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -1.14%E -0.374%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.86%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.73%E -4.88%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -6.73%E -4.88%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -6.73%E -4.88%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -6.73%E -4.88%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.07%EV -7.41%E -5.41%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.93%EV -0.817%E -0.267%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -7.41%E -5.41%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -1.14%E -0.374%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -7.41%E -5.41%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -7.62%E -2.67%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -7.62%E -2.67%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -7.62%E -2.67%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -9.43%E -7.04%K -27.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV +0.480%E +0.155%K +0.228%G +0.001% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -9.43%E -7.04%K -27.74%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -1.14%E -0.374%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -9.43%E -7.04%K -27.74%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -10.11%E -7.60%K -30.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +3.72%E +1.16%K +1.69%G +0.063% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -10.11%E -7.60%K -30.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -10.11%E -7.60%K -30.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -2.76%E -0.921%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 0.3% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.4% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.43% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 1.4% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:04 |
| Novig◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.18% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.82% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39% | 9.7% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |