Language:English
Aleksandar Vukic v Rafael Jodar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aleksandar Vukic (Local)
Prediction 22.45%4.46fair odd
EV +17.84%
Edge +3.40%
Kelly +4.20%
Growth +0.749%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.10%22.04%22.35%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.324.255.2527.78%23.17%23.50%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rafael Jodar (Visit)
Prediction 77.55%1.29fair odd
EV -0.731%
Edge -0.571%
Kelly -2.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.77%77.96%77.65%81.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.211.211.2887.72%82.76%82.64%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Vukic (Local): 22.45%; Rafael Jodar (Visit): 77.55%. For Aleksandar Vukic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.46. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +17.84%E +3.40%K +4.20%G +0.749% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -10.04%E -8.65%K -62.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV +16.72%E +3.22%K +3.98%G +0.666% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -10.81%E -9.40%K -72.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +12.23%E +2.45%K +3.06%G +0.374% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -9.26%E -7.92%K -54.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +12.23%E +2.45%K +3.06%G +0.374% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -9.26%E -7.92%K -54.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +12.23%E +2.45%K +3.06%G +0.374% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -9.26%E -7.92%K -54.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +12.23%E +2.45%K +3.06%G +0.374% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -9.26%E -7.92%K -54.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV +7.74%E +1.61%K +2.04%G +0.158% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -9.26%E -7.92%K -54.48%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV +6.62%E +1.39%K +1.77%G +0.117% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -10.04%E -8.65%K -62.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV +6.62%E +1.39%K +1.77%G +0.117% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -10.04%E -8.65%K -62.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.52%EV +5.50%E +1.17%K +1.49%G +0.082% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.48%EV -11.59%E -10.17%K -82.78%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +1.01%E +0.224%K +0.288%G +0.003% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.16%E -5.09%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.01%E +0.224%K +0.288%G +0.003% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.94%E -5.78%K -34.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +1.01%E +0.224%K +0.288%G +0.003% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -9.26%E -7.92%K -54.48%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -1.24%E -0.281%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -6.16%E -5.09%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -1.24%E -0.281%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -6.16%E -5.09%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -1.24%E -0.281%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -6.16%E -5.09%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -1.24%E -0.281%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -6.16%E -5.09%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -1.24%E -0.281%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -8.49%E -7.19%K -47.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -2.36%E -0.542%K -0.704%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 15:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.40%EV -2.81%E -0.649%K -0.843%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.60%EV -3.06%E -2.45%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 15:17 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -3.48%E -0.810%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.94%E -5.78%K -34.68%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -3.48%E -0.810%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -7.71%E -6.48%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -3.48%E -0.810%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -9.26%E -7.92%K -54.48%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.40%EV -4.38%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.60%EV -4.61%E -3.75%K -20.04%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -4.60%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.61%E -3.75%K -20.04%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 15:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.60%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.73%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.94%E -5.78%K -34.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.73%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.94%E -5.78%K -34.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -5.73%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -7.71%E -6.48%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -6.85%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 15:06 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.97%E -1.94%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 15:07 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.97%E -1.94%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.26%EV -8.20%E -2.00%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.74%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 15:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.68%EV -8.87%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.32%EV -2.28%E -1.81%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 15:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.68%EV -8.87%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.32%EV -2.28%E -1.81%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 15:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.22%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.06%E -2.45%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 15:17 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.22%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.22%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 15:17 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.22%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.22%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.22%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.22%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.94%E -5.78%K -34.68%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 15:18 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -12.46%E -3.19%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -12.46%E -3.19%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -6.16%E -5.09%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -13.58%E -3.53%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -2.28%E -1.81%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 15:08 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -15.83%E -4.22%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.06%E -2.45%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -16.95%E -4.58%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -3.06%E -2.45%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -19.19%E -5.33%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -0.731%E -0.571%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 15:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.40% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60% | 2.1% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26% | 2.2% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| ProphetX◎ | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.60% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.40% | 2.4% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Novig◎ | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.90% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.10% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |