Language:English
Alejandro Tabilo v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Tabilo (Local)
Prediction 39.65%2.52fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.508%
Kelly -0.849%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.37%39.64%39.70%41.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.402.4944.44%41.91%41.67%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 60.35%1.66fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -4.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.90%60.36%60.30%61.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.571.571.6165.36%63.64%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Tabilo (Local): 39.65%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 60.35%. For Alejandro Tabilo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.49, with an expected value of -1.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.37%EV -1.26%E -0.508%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.63%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -2.06%E -0.833%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-23 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -2.06%E -0.833%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-23 18:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -2.85%E -1.16%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.85%E -1.16%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 11:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -3.64%E -1.50%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -2.84%E -1.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-23 18:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -4.04%E -1.67%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-22 12:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.44%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 15:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-22 15:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-23 10:58 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-22 12:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-22 12:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 19:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 02:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-22 12:33 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 08:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.86%E -3.76%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 11:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 11:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 11:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 11:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.67%E -5.01%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-23 08:23 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -6.02%E -2.54%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-23 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.84%E -1.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-23 15:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.84%E -1.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-23 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-23 17:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 12:35 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 19:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.86%E -3.76%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-23 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.67%E -5.01%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-23 18:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 13:08 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.67%E -5.01%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-23 16:58 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.78%E -4.79%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-22 12:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.78%E -4.79%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-22 12:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 0.7% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53% | 1.3% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87% | 1.4% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |