Idioma:Español
Alejandro Tabilo v Alex Michelsen
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Alejandro Tabilo (Local)
Predicción 39.65%2.52momio equitativo
EV -1.26%
Ventaja -0.508%
Kelly -0.849%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.49
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.37%39.64%39.70%41.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.392.402.4944.44%41.91%41.67%40.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Alex Michelsen (Visitante)
Predicción 60.35%1.66momio equitativo
EV -2.84%
Ventaja -1.76%
Kelly -4.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.90%60.36%60.30%61.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.571.571.6165.36%63.64%63.69%62.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Alejandro Tabilo (Local): 39.65%; Alex Michelsen (Visitante): 60.35%. Para Alejandro Tabilo (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.52. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.49, con un valor esperado de -1.26%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.37%EV -1.26%E -0.508%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.63%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -2.06%E -0.833%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-23 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -2.06%E -0.833%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-23 18:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -2.85%E -1.16%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.85%E -1.16%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 11:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -3.64%E -1.50%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -2.84%E -1.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-23 18:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -4.04%E -1.67%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-22 12:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.44%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 15:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-22 15:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-23 10:58 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-22 12:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-22 12:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 19:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 02:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-22 12:33 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 08:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.86%E -3.76%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 11:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 11:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 11:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 11:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.63%E -2.36%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.67%E -5.01%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-23 08:23 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -6.02%E -2.54%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-23 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.84%E -1.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-23 15:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.84%E -1.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-23 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-23 17:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 12:35 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 19:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.86%E -3.76%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-23 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-23 18:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.82%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.67%E -5.01%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-23 18:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 13:08 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.67%E -5.01%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-23 16:58 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.78%E -4.79%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-22 12:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.78%E -4.79%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.25%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-22 12:35 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 0.7% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53% | 1.3% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87% | 1.4% | 2026-03-23 19:55 |