Language:English
Lorenzo Sonego v Dusan Lajovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lorenzo Sonego (Local)
Prediction 21.02%4.76fair odd
EV +7.22%
Edge +1.42%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.127%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.66%22.83%21.08%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.054.224.535.1048.78%23.71%22.10%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dusan Lajovic (Visit)
Prediction 78.98%1.27fair odd
EV +38.21%
Edge +21.83%
Kelly +50.94%
Growth +19.46%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%77.17%78.92%81.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.261.171.7589.29%79.42%85.47%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lorenzo Sonego (Local): 21.02%; Dusan Lajovic (Visit): 78.98%. For Dusan Lajovic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.27. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +38.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -56.90%E -27.76%K -54.19%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV +38.21%E +21.83%K +50.94%G +19.46% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 12:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -54.80%E -25.49%K -47.65%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV +37.42%E +21.50%K +50.57%G +18.92% | 4.0% | 2026-04-22 12:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -54.80%E -25.49%K -47.65%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV +37.42%E +21.50%K +50.57%G +18.92% | 4.0% | 2026-04-22 12:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -55.85%E -26.60%K -50.77%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +35.05%E +20.50%K +49.36%G +17.30% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 12:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -54.80%E -25.49%K -47.65%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV +33.47%E +19.80%K +48.51%G +16.23% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 12:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -55.85%E -26.60%K -50.77%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV +33.47%E +19.80%K +48.51%G +16.23% | 6.8% | 2026-04-22 12:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -54.80%E -25.49%K -47.65%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV +30.31%E +18.37%K +46.63%G +14.13% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 12:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -44.92%E -17.14%K -27.73%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV +20.83%E +13.62%K +39.31%G +8.19% | 3.5% | 2026-04-22 12:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -20.11%E -5.29%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -2.07%E -1.67%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -11.70%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -2.86%E -2.32%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -7.49%E -1.70%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.65%E -2.99%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -10.65%E -2.51%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.65%E -2.99%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.90%E -3.98%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.65%E -2.99%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.90%E -3.98%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.65%E -2.99%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.90%E -3.98%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.65%E -2.99%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -11.70%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -4.44%E -3.67%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -4.34%E -0.954%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.23%E -4.36%K -26.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -8.97%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.23%E -4.36%K -26.14%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 12:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -8.97%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.23%E -4.36%K -26.14%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -15.90%E -3.98%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.23%E -4.36%K -26.14%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.77%EV +1.55%E +0.320%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.23%EV -6.02%E -5.06%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 12:53 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.39%E -1.20%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.81%E -5.77%K -37.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -12.75%E -3.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.86%EV -6.81%E -5.77%K -37.82%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +7.22%E +1.42%K +1.76%G +0.127% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +7.22%E +1.42%K +1.76%G +0.127% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +7.22%E +1.42%K +1.76%G +0.127% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +7.22%E +1.42%K +1.76%G +0.127% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +7.22%E +1.42%K +1.76%G +0.127% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +7.22%E +1.42%K +1.76%G +0.127% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +7.22%E +1.42%K +1.76%G +0.127% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +5.12%E +1.02%K +1.28%G +0.066% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +5.12%E +1.02%K +1.28%G +0.066% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +3.02%E +0.616%K +0.774%G +0.023% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -0.136%E -0.029%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 12:53 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -3.29%E -0.715%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -9.60%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -7.60%E -6.49%K -44.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.99%EV +4.07%E +0.822%K +1.03%G +0.042% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.01%EV -8.39%E -7.23%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.02%E +0.616%K +0.774%G +0.023% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -8.39%E -7.23%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.02%E +0.616%K +0.774%G +0.023% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -8.39%E -7.23%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.02%E +0.616%K +0.774%G +0.023% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -8.39%E -7.23%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.70%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -8.39%E -7.23%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -16.96%E -4.29%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.30%EV -8.39%E -7.23%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV +5.12%E +1.02%K +1.28%G +0.066% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -9.18%E -7.98%K -61.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.915%E +0.191%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -9.18%E -7.98%K -61.18%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -0.136%E -0.029%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -9.18%E -7.98%K -61.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -0.136%E -0.029%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -9.18%E -7.98%K -61.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -2.24%E -0.481%K -0.613%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -9.18%E -7.98%K -61.18%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -5.39%E -1.20%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.65%EV -9.18%E -7.98%K -61.18%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -0.136%E -0.029%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.65%EV -9.97%E -8.74%K -71.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -3.29%E -0.715%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.42%EV -11.55%E -10.31%K -96.22%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.21% | 0.2% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-04-22 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.75% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.25% | 2.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.73% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 75.27% | 15.5% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Novig◎ | 5.52I 18.12%NM 15.34% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 84.66% | 18.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |